Champions League: All-English final beckons

“But if there is to be an upset, then we can expect it to come down Real Madrid’s left, where the superb Vinicius Junior could surge past a City defence that badly misses Kyle Walker’s recovery pace.”

Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Villarreal must be more ambitious

The first leg at Anfield was something of a damp squib, largely because Villarreal seemed happy to sit very deep and frustrate Liverpool with a defensive formation that sought to destroy rather than to create. They took a long time over set-pieces, threw themselves to the ground, and hoped to hang onto a 0-0.

Clearly they require a new strategy now. Unai Emery, starting in a 4-4-1-1 formation, will be looking for his side to hold a higher defensive line and to pass out under pressure – before releasing the wingers and full-backs into the wide spaces with direct balls. It is a two-tier system: first, wriggle out of the Liverpool press with neat triangles, and then play longer passes to catch Liverpool’s high line.

Naturally, this may leave them open to Liverpool hitting with a counter-punch, which is made more likely by Roberto Firmino’s injury. Jurgen Klopp, having started Diogo Jota at the weekend, plans to play Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah, and Luis Diaz together. These three should have chances to break when Villarreal show ambition, putting the tie to bed.

Thiago & Fabinho key to stunting counters

For this sort of game to develop, however, requires Villarreal managing to avoid becoming penned in by Liverpool. Even if Emery’s side are more ambitious than before, that initial capacity to work around Liverpool’s pressing may not work – not with Thiago Alcantara and Fabinho patrolling central midfield.

These two are world-class at anticipating space and movement, intercepting or picking up loose balls that prevent the other side from even leaving their own half of the field. More likely than not, with the psychological advantage of a 2-0 lead the visitors will turn the screw again and ensure this is a disappointing end to a brilliant campaign for the Spanish side.

If that wasn’t enough reason to back Liverpool, Villarreal’s weak point is left-back Pervis Estupinan, and with a more complex task on Tuesday – he cannot simply camp on the edge of his own penalty area – he is more vulnerable to how Trent Alexander-Arnold and Salah swap over to terrorise a defender.

Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Error-prone Real defence relies on magic

Anyone expecting Real Madrid to perform better in the second leg of their semi-final should remind themselves that Chelsea won 3-2 at the Bernabeu and, with the Real defence all over the place, should really have gone through. Manchester City were dominant in the first leg and should be again, although there is a reason why Real keep clinging on.

Tactically, they simply rely on moments of magic from their highly-experienced players. From Luka Modric’s brilliant assist against Chelsea to Karim Benzema’s second goal against Man City, this is a team that can score out of nowhere. Pep Guardiola’s key challenge is ensuring his centre-backs never lose sight of Benzema for a moment, and that Ilkay Gundogan stays alongside Rodri to keep track of Modric.

However, the sheer number of poor individual displays in the Real back line means the visitors will likely qualify even if it is another high-scoring game. Ferland Mendy was beaten time and again in the first leg, while an injury to David Alaba means Casemiro playing in central defence alongside Eder Militao. Neither has the speed or anticipation required to handle Phil Foden.

Vinicius & Cancelo battle crucial

But if there is to be an upset, then we can expect it to come down Real Madrid’s left, where the superb Vinicius Junior could surge past a City defence that badly misses Kyle Walker’s recovery pace. That is what happened several times in the first leg, and it will be a threat again even if Joao Cancelo starts at right-back.

Cancelo’s tendency to come infield when Man City have possession means there could be a big gap on this side when Real Madrid get the chance to counter-attack. Vinicius will stay high and wide throughout, ready to get in behind Guardiola’s defenders and tee up Benzema.

Nevertheless Man City have advantages in almost every area of the pitch. Riyad Mahrez can again get the better of Mendy and Kevin de Bruyne will dominate an ageing Real midfield. There is little hope of a two-goal win for the hosts.