Watford v Burnley: Golden opportunity for Clarets to move closer to safety

“Now is the time for them to gamble. It’s also our time to have a gamble on them.”

Watford done and dusted

Things are looking pretty bleak for Watford and odds of just 1.011/100 on them going down tell you all you need to know.

I suppose you could argue that with two of their next three matches being against Burnley and Everton, the fixture list is giving them the best-possible chance of beating the drop.

But at the moment, they don’t look like beating anyone.

They’ve lost seven in a row and the one before that was a draw at Old Trafford against a Manchester United side with plenty of problems of their own.

In their last four matches, they’ve conceded 12 goals and scored two, the only surprise being that they managed to get one in a 5-1 hammering at Man City last weekend.

Burnley starting to believe

Since Sean Dyche was sacked after 10 years at the club, Burnley drew one and won two.

There was a fine 1-1 stalemate at high-flying West Ham followed by priceless home wins against Southampton and Wolves, both without conceding, no less.

Sean Dyche must be a pretty frustrated man indeed because this is the same set of players as he had who were struggling so much, playing pretty much the same way, so it’s hard to know why results have been so different.

But they won’t care. For the first time in a long while, they’re out of the relegation zone with the only fly in the ointment being that Everton, two points behind them, have a game in hand on them.

If they do stay up, one of the men they can thank is Wout Weghorst. The former Wolfsburg forward only arrived in January but has made a big impact, chipping in with two goals and three assists.

And if that doesn’t sound like much, remember Burnley aren’t exactly high-scorers.

In fact, only bottom-placed Norwich with 22 have scored less than their 29.

One of the things you often see in betting is a team being far too short on the back of ‘needing’ to win more than the other side. That is of course assuming that you accept that even the Watford players believe their race is run.

So, I was pretty surprised that the Clarets are slight outsiders here at 2.829/5 as the side who really do need the result more. They may still make it in terms of staying up. It’s Watford who are cooked.

The hosts are 2.77/44 with the draw 3.412/5.

But there are plenty of other reasons to go with Burnley.

Such as the fact that Watford have now lost seven in a row, or all of their last ten at home. Stats from Opta.

They’ve also failed to even score against this lot in their last four against them. At the other end of the pitch, it’s now 21 home games where they’ve conceded at least once.

Then of course there’s the fact that Burnley are on a fine run.

They’ll surely see this as an excellent chance of putting more daylight between them and Everton and I can’t see them playing out a draw.

Now is the time for them to gamble. It’s also our time to have a gamble on them.

You could argue there’s some value about ‘overs’.

It’s paid out in 68.8% of Watford’s home games this season and I each of their last four.

Then again, that number drops down to just 37.5% for Burnley away games with none of the last four winners as ‘overs’ matches.

But with three of the last four between these two at Turf Moor having three or more and with Watford’s potential to concede plenty allied with a tendency to score even in defeat of late and you can see why ‘overs’ gets the nod at 2.111/10 if you were playing this market.

That man Weghorst looks Burnley’s most likely scorer and with no disrespect to Watford, he won’t have many better chances to add to his tally than this one.

He’s 13/8 to score.

An alternative to the straight Burnley win is the visitors to not lose. You can cover an away win and the draw by going Burnley/Draw on the Double Chance market at shorter odds of 3.02.