Everton are desperate for points after slipping into the relegation zone and they can add to their strong home record against Chelsea on Sunday, says Dave Tindall…
“If the visitors are just a bit sloppy, Everton have shown enough in front of their home fans – seven points form the last three games – to suggest they can bank either one point or all three.”
There was always the feeling among Everton fans that, however bad it got, there would always be three teams worse than them.
Norwich and Watford are certainly filling that role but Burnley have suddenly found a new lease of life since what looked a questionable decision to get rid of long-term manager Sean Dyche.
Seven points from the last nine for Michael Jackson’s men have taken them to 31 points and out of the relegation zone. That’s two clear of Everton although the Toffees have a game in hand.
Frank Lampard was certainly pleased with his team’s effort and desire in the Merseyside derby but right now third-bottom Everton need actual victories not moral ones.
Unfortunately, the fixture list isn’t helping them as they follow the trip to Liverpool with this one. Add in a visit to Arsenal on final day and that means three of of their final seven games will have been against top-four sides.
After hosting Chelsea, Everton have away games at Leicester and Watford before back-to-back home games against Brentford and Crystal Palace. That quartet of fixtures offer more hope but the relegation market makes Everton 2.1211/10 more likely to go down than Burnley 2.747/4.
Chelsea strong on the road but overall form is mixed
Chelsea have just one more away game to play after Sunday’s clash at Goodison and they’ve performed more like a title-winning side on the road so far.
In 17 Premier League away days they’ve racked up 11 wins, drawn four and lost just twice.
That prowess on their travels has extended to Europe too and before Thursday night’s 1-1 draw at Old Trafford they’d racked up nine straight road wins.
They took the lead at Old Trafford but were pegged back by a Cristiano Ronaldo equaliser and there are some doubts over their results over the very short term and slightly further back.
Nailing it down, they’ve one won, drawn one and lost one of their last three games while across the last eights matches it’s four wins, one draw and three defeats.
Third place isn’t quite in the bag yet but home games against Wolves, Leicester and Watford along with a trip to Leeds suggests it shouldn’t be a problem. That’s good on the one hand but could create complacency on the other.
Lampard and Everton will be up for the fight
The good news for Everton is that they’ve won their last three home games against Chelsea so have a strong record in this fixture.
It’s easy to dismiss those past exploits given how poor Lampard’s side have been but, in truth, their home form is not that of a relegation team.
Everton have won seven at home which is the same as eighth-placed Wolves and just one fewer than Chelsea have managed at Stamford Bridge.
The match market shows Everton at 5.59/2 to bank all three points while Chelsea are 1.768/11. The Draw is 3.953/1.
Thomas Tuchel’s men have more away wins than Liverpool but the way Everton performed against their Merseyside neighbours helps me pick the best bet here.
Lampard would have been up for this clash anyway having been sacked by his former club but given Everton’s plight, we absolutely know we’re on a trier if backing the hosts.
Chelsea are clearly the better side and have to be given full respect away from Stamford Bridge but I think the hosts can get something here.
Whether it’s a win I’m not so sure but, at the odds, a lay of Chelsea at 1.774/5 gives us two ways to make a profit.
If the visitors are just a bit sloppy, Everton have shown enough in front of their home fans – seven points from the last three games at Goodison – to suggest they can bank either one point or all three.
Mount and Richarlison are Bet Builder options
Chelsea’s last six goals have been scored by six different players – Marcos Alonso, Christian Pulisic, Cesar Azpilicueta, Timo Werner, Mason Mount and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
They have plenty of other likely scorers too but Mount’s three goals in the last three away games suggest he’s worth considering for scorer options. He also netted against Everton in the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge earlier this season.
For Everton, Richarlison has three in his last four starts while Anthony Gordon got the winner against Manchester United and caused Liverpool plenty of problems.
On the Bet Builder, both Mount and Richarlison to score anytime pays 12.011/1 and could be worth a go.
The basic Both teams to Score option is 2.01/1 while Over 2.5 Goals is 2.0421/20.
Opta stat
This is the first time Everton are playing a Premier League game when starting the day in the relegation zone since December 2019 – a 3-1 home win against Chelsea. This is their latest such game (in terms of games played) since April 1999, and a 2-0 win against Coventry (match 33), while it’s the latest in terms of date since the final day of the 1997-98 campaign (1-1 vs Coventry).
Source: Betfair Premier League
