There are only three matchdays left in the Bundesliga season, and Kevin Hatchard’s back with another trio of selections.
Motivation the key for visitors
Borussia Mönchengladbach v RB Leipzig
Monday 02 May, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
RB Leipzig are already through to the final of the DFB Cup, and are chasing a place in the final of the Europa League. However, the completion of one of their key tasks is still in the balance thanks to last weekend’s 2-1 home defeat to Union Berlin, as they have not yet secured a top-four finish. Die Roten Bullen were in the driving seat against the capital club, but a quickfire double in the closing minutes turned the game on its head.
That said, Leipzig’s league form in 2022 is exceptional. Their only defeats have come against Union and Bayern, and they have won 10 of their 14 league games since the turn of the year. They have won their last five away matches in the Bundesliga, including victories at Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen.
Gladbach held Freiburg to a 3-3 draw last weekend, and had a strong start to the game, but remain defensively fragile. Had it not been for the general excellence of goalkeeper Yann Sommer, they would surely have been in deep relegation trouble. With nothing tangible to play for, there is an end-of-term feeling, with a number of players keen on a summer exit.
Leipzig can be backed in the Match Odds market at 1.855/6 here, but I’m happy to boost that to evens by using the Sportsbook’s Bet Builder to throw in Over 1.5 Goals. 28 of Gladbach’s 31 league games have featured at least two goals.
Streich’s men can keep the dream alive
Hoffenheim v Freiburg
Saturday 30 April, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
There is something truly remarkable about Freiburg being just two points off the top four with only three matchdays remaining, and as RB Leipzig don’t play until Monday, Christian Streich’s perennial overachievers can move into the top four with a victory, applying some genuine pressure.
Last weekend’s 3-3 draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach was bittersweet. Freiburg launched a stirring comeback from 2-0 down to lead 3-2, only to drop two points right at the end of the contest. That said, it continued an impressive run of form that has seen SCF lose just one of their last ten league fixtures, and that was a defeat against the champions Bayern.
Freiburg make the short trip to face a Hoffenheim side that has collapsed under the weight of expectation. Sebastian Hoeness’ side was in the mix for a top-four finish just a few weeks ago, but they have collected just three points from their last six games, and they are in serious danger of missing out on Europe entirely.
Freiburg won at Hoffenheim 4-1 in the cup, and they are the team with the form and the momentum. They have lost just two of their last eight away games in the league, and I’ll back them +0 & +0.5 here on the Asian Handicap. If the game is drawn, we get a half-win, but we get a full payout if the visitors take all three points.
Terrific Taiwo can make the difference
Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth
Friday 29 April, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
These are heady days for Union Berlin fans. Having qualified for Europe last season for the first time in two decades, the capital club is on track to secure back-to-back qualifications. Going into this weekend, Urs Fischer’s side is sixth, four points off the top four with three games left. They have found their form at the right time, with four straight wins in the league.
Greuther Fürth have been relegated, and quite frankly their demise was never in doubt. Their promotion was a surprise, and they lost key players in the summer, and wisely decided not to break the bank to replace them. Coach Stefan Leitl is leaving to join ambitious second-tier side Hannover, which shows you where Fürth are in the pecking order.
Fürth have the worst away record in the league, and I think they’ll lose here, but I’m ignoring the Match Odds market. Instead I’m backing Taiwo Awoniyi to score at a generous 2.186/5 on the Exchange. The Nigerian is in good form, and has scored 13 league goals this term, including four in his last eight top-flight appearances.
Source: Betfair German
