South American expert Nathan Joyes returns after a short break between group games, as he looks to get back on the board in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay.
Sadly, the second week of selections wasn’t as promising as the opening, but we certainly go again.
It appeared to be very much the case of overcomplicating a couple of bets, as well as not getting the rub of the green.
Palmeiras smashing Independiente Petrolero 8-1, with the Bolivians scoring with their only shot of the game, was a prime example. Atletico Mineiro drawing with America MG, and although the away side scored a screamer from range, the hosts finished with 80% possession, had a total of 30 shots and nine corners to nil, they just couldn’t find the crucial second goal.
However, we take it in our stride and there are four selections from me this week, and we start in Argentina.
Set pieces could be key for Argentinians
Estudiantes v Bragantino
Tuesday, 23:15
Estudiantes will be very content with how their Copa Libertadores campaign has begun. A convincing 4-1 victory over Velez Sarsfield followed up with a 0-0 draw away to Nacional, the Argentinians are in a very good position to progress from the groups.
Their opponents, Bragantino, are also unbeaten, after beating Nacional at home and holding Velez to a 2-2 draw in Argentina.
However, despite the Brazilians being a strong run of form themselves, there were signs of weakness last time out against Velez from crosses into the box, conceding from a set piece and a simple ball put into the box.
Estudiantes scored from a well worked set piece and a cross against Velez in their 4-1 triumph, with both defenders Emmanuel Mas and Agustin Rogel getting on the scoresheet for the Argentinians.
They have a physical presence which can be dangerous, and Bragantino may well struggle to deal with the constant pressure they may find themselves under.
I was expecting Estudiantes to be priced odds-on due to their home form and recent performances but due to their opponents arriving in form, this has impacted the betting in our favour.
Back Estudiantes to win at evens with a one point stake.
Brazilians to be tested in Paraguay
Libertad v Athletico PR
Tuesday, 23:15
Athletico PR are very much underperforming in their Copa Libertadores campaign, having drawn 0-0 with Caracas before relying on a penalty to beat The Strongest at home. Neither performance has impressed me, especially their home match against a Bolivian outfit which were there for the taking.
Athletico PR had the lion’s share of possession in the first half against The Strongest, but failed to have a single shot on target, and rarely looked like scoring. It looked likely a set piece was going to bail them out of an embarrassing draw and a needless tackle early in the second half spared their blushes.
Libertad, on the other hand, managed to do what plenty struggle to do, by securing a point away to The Strongest, before a deserved 2-1 victory over Caracas last time out. The away side scored on the counter, but aside from that, Libertad controlled the game and limited the away sides chances throughout.
Atheltico PR look short of attacking options this year, and I don’t think they’ll be able to cope with the physical presence and high press of Libertad, who can often make these matches tough for the best teams in the competition.
Back Libertad double chance and under 2.5 match goals at 1.9010/11.
Home advantage can secure a big win
The Strongest v Caracas
Thursday, 03:00
The Bolivians have yet to pick up a win from their first two matches, and with the pressure firmly on, their home tie against Caracas is an opportunity they can’t afford to lose.
However, prior to their 1-1 draw with Libertad, The Strongest had won their last four home Copa Libertadores matches, including wins over Brazil’s Santos and Ecuador’s Barcelona.
Similar to Always Ready the other week against Corinthians, the sweltering conditions are almost unbearable to play in and no doubt Caracas will feel the heat on Thursday evening.
The Strongest held a good shape in Brazil last time out against Athletico PR, something which isn’t often seen when Bolivians travel outside of their comfort zones, which will put them in good stead against much weaker opposition.
Caracas have also yet to win and as discussed earlier, they haven’t looked a threat in either of their matches to date, with just the one goal across 180 minutes of football. I’m expecting the Venezuelan’s to sit back and try and escape with a point but an early goal for the hosts may well see two or three follow. The earlier the better in a Bolivian home match.
A home win and over 1.5 match goals at 1.654/6 looks a safer bet than most.
Bolivians to maintain 100% home record
Always Ready v Deportivo Cali
Friday, 03:00
Without sounding like a broken Bolivian record, Always Ready are in a similar boat to their domestic rivals, The Strongest, this week when they face Colombian outfit Deportivo Cali.
Deportivo Cali could not have started their Copa Libertadores campaign any better, defeating Argentinian giants Boca Juniors 2-0 on home soil in front of a sell out crowd. They fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat to Corinthians in their second match, but it is worth noting the Brazilians, who did deserve the three points, have been underperforming as a whole this campaign.
Always Ready dispatched Corinthians at home 2-0 in their opening fixture, before losing 2-0 to Boca Juniors, a match which could have been at least three or four goals in favour of the Argentinians.
However, Always Ready know how to play to their strengths and back on home soil, they have the perfect chance to make it two from two against a side who do no travel well in this competition.
In fact, Deportivo Cali have lost their last eleven Copa Libertadores matches on the road, and I highly doubt a trip to Bolivia with high altitude will change that.
Back Always Ready to win at 1.705/7 with a one point stake.
Source: BetFair Tips
