Ste Tudor looks at where the goals, assists and three points will likely come from in the Premier League this week.
There’s a lot to unpack ahead of this battle for top four that in days gone by was a title bout.
Manchester United’s slump into mediocrity pales to the woeful performances that have taken them there while the Gunners’ sublime outing at the Bridge mid-week once again highlighted the immense talents of Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe.
Then there’s the possible return of Ronaldo and this week’s confirmation of Erik ten Hag as the next Reds boss.
Yet, of far more relevance to the possible outcome at the Emirates is how much improved Arsenal’s front-line has been since Eddie Nketiah replaced Alexandre Lacazette. First Southampton’s goal was peppered with shots without reward before chances were clinically converted at Chelsea, and with the 22-year-old stretching defences and providing a focal point, Saka and Smith Rowe are reaping the benefits.
Nketiah to have 1 or more shots on target in each half is 4.5 as an odds boost
Leicester v Aston Villa (Saturday, 15:00) – Foxes’ bite is back
A wastefulness in front of goal is presently costing Villa dear and after outperforming their xG during Steven Gerrard’s honeymoon period, Ollie Watkins and company are now struggling amidst a string of defeats. Against Spurs last week, the Villans carved out eight shots on target and failed to score. The last time that happened Martin O’Neill was in charge.
The most telling detail of Leicester’s draw at Goodison on Wednesday evening was Brendan Rodgers’ broad grin post-game, despite conceding a 92nd minute equaliser. Not coincidentally, with their season-long injury crisis finally easing the Foxes are starting to look back to their best and that might well be reflected in this intriguing Midlands derby.
9 or more shots on target by both teams combined is worth a punt @ 2.0
Man City v Watford (Saturday, 15:00) – Spring nerves
If this game was situated in autumn the narrative would be clear as crystal. City have won their last 14 encounters with the Hornets and a further win here will set a new record. The aggregate score-line from their last ten meetings is a thumping 42-4. In a 3-1 win at Vicarage Road back in December, the Blues rattled off 26 attempts on Daniel Bachmann’s goal and while Pep Guardiola’s champions have pushed the envelope once again this season, Watford have lost 69% of their league commitments. They have yet to score outside of the box. None of their defenders have found the target.
In short, it would likely be a massacre, only we’re not in autumn. Instead, there are only a few games remaining and as evidenced against Brighton this week the nerves are jangling for City. All they desire now are the three points. As for the visitors, those last-ditch interceptions become ever-more intense. Ignore your instincts and prioritise the circumstances for this one.
Norwich v Newcastle (Saturday, 15:00) – Stage is set for few set-pieces
The Canaries are fast approaching Hail Mary territory in their relegation fight so it’s only proper to offer up some hope ahead of this must-win clash.
Norwich last lost to the Mapgies at Carrow Road way back in January 1994. Indeed, they’ve never beaten another side more at home in the Premier League. Teemu Pukki meanwhile boasts four goals in three against this weekend’s opponents.
That though is where the optimism fades. Eddie Howe’s side head to Norfolk on the back of three straight wins, largely inspired by one of the league’s most in-form players, Bruno Guimaraes. And when Miguel Almiron starts finding the back of the net you know all is canny in the North-East.
Corners are the way to go here. Both teams habitually seem to be averse to them, averaging 4.2 and 4.4 for the season respectively.
Brentford v Tottenham (Saturday, 17:30) – Strikers on song
The Bees have done well out of London derbies this season, gaining 14 points, and host Spurs in fine fettle having won five of their last six league games. Ivan Toney has played a large part in their recent resurgence, bagging six in six while all eyes will be on Christian Eriksen playing against his former club in what will be an emotional evening for the Dane.
Tottenham’s 0-1 reverse to Brighton last week halted their momentum against all expectation but they still possess Son and Kane who have accrued 29 direct goal involvements between them. It should be noted that Kane has scored two-thirds of his tally away from North London.
Goals surely await us with so much attacking talent in form and expect Brentford to step it up after the break. Thomas Frank’s side have notched 13 of their last 15 in the second period.
Brighton v Southampton (Sunday, 14:00) – Kickabout on the beach
What to make of Southampton right now, after reacting to a six-goal mauling at the hands of Chelsea by beating Arsenal? The Gunners then resoundingly won at Chelsea this week just to further confuse matters.
A two-nil loss at Burnley on Thursday – that would have been significantly worse save for Fraser Forster’s brilliance in nets – eradicated the notion that the Saints are in recovery mode after a poor run of results. More likely, they are on the beach with a handful of games to spare.
What better destination therefore than Brighton who haven’t scored at the Amex for 480 minutes but two recent triumphs in North London greatly impressed. We must also factor in that this is a south coast derby, by their very nature unpredictable affairs.
Thankfully the fixture’s back-catalogue offers up some clarity. A remarkable 24% of goals scored in their Premier League meetings have come from the spot.
Burnley v Wolves (Sunday, 14:00) – Blame it on the Bruno
Michael Jackson’s caretaker tenure at Turf Moor began with a comprehensive and much-needed win on Thursday but don’t expect a thriller at the weekend. Bruno Lage’s men are masters at sucking the lifeblood out of contests away from Molineux, with exactly half of their away games this term either being won or lost one to nil.
It doesn’t overly surprise to learn that Wolves haven’t drawn a game so far in 2022 while Burnley have recently shed their habit of sharing the points after 11 of their opening 20 fixtures ended in stalemate.
Sometimes though you just have to go with your gut and this one has score-draw all over it.
Chelsea v West Ham (Sunday, 14:00) – Mounting a comeback
The Blues have lost their last three at Stamford Bridge, shipping an incredible 11 goals in those defeats. The games in between these seismic losses have seen them blast six past Southampton, beat Real Madrid in a five-goal classic at the Bernabeu, and successfully navigate a path to the FA Cup final.
If this suggests Chelsea’s off-field concerns are seeping onto their pitch they will surely be glad its West Ham they’re entertaining next. The Hammers last won on the road on New Year’s Day while David Moyes has never experienced a victory at the Bridge in 16 attempts.
Mason Mount assisted in the corresponding game earlier in the season and needs just one more to reach double figures for 2021/22.
Liverpool v Everton (Sunday, 16:30) – Hoodoo to start anew
After finally ending their Anfield hoodoo last year Everton head across Stanley Park now in desperate need of a result rather than desperately desiring one for pride. Conceivably, the Toffees could be in the bottom three at the time of kick-off but there are positives sourced from picking up four points in recent weeks via battling performances at home. The form of Anthony Gordon also encourages.
It would be quite wrong however to ignore the chasm in class between these sides, for all the expectation that the occasion might level the playing field. Jurgen Klopp will do what he always does prior to a derby and attempt to take the emotion out of the build-up while Mo Salah will very possibly score because that’s his M.O in this fixture, previously firing four in six.
Crystal Palace v Leeds (Monday, 20:00) – Drama from the off
In the technical area, Patrick Vieira and Jesse Marsch meet once more after contesting nine games in the MLS, managing their respective New York sides. For what it’s worth, Marsch came out on top in the US.
Here though, Palace should be fancied to prevail, or at the very least fancied to start brightly. In each of their last two league losses Vieira has strongly condemned his side’s failure to come out of the blocks sprinting. They will not need telling a third time.
Leeds will have a significant say of course, having rediscovered their scoring boots following a barren spell. Countering this, Wilfried Zaha is routinely superb at Selhurst Park.
BTTS and Zaha to score anytime is around 3.5 as a bet builder
Source: BetFair Tips
