Wednesday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League and more

Bordeaux 2.568/5 v St Etienne 3.052/1, the Draw 3.45
18:00
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

We begin a busy Wednesday evening in France as two of Ligue 1’s relegation candidates go head to head…

James Eastham says: “St Etienne’s results have improved markedly since they sacked Claude Puel and appointed Pascal Dupraz in December. Under Puel, St Etienne averaged 0.67 points per game. Under Dupraz, they’ve averaged 1.29 points per game, a record good enough to place 12th in the standings had Dupraz been in charge for the entire season.

“There has been no similar uptick in results since Bordeaux appointed David Guion as manager in February. Under the ex-Reims boss, Bordeaux have managed just 0.75 points per game, which is actually worse than what went before (0.83 points per game). Many of the same failings remain, especially in defence: Bordeaux lost 6-1 at Lyon last weekend, and have one of the worst defensive records in Ligue 1 history.

“St Etienne are playing like a side that believe they will escape the drop, whereas Bordeaux are playing like a team shutting its eyes and hoping for the best. This clear difference between the two teams is likely to play out over the 90 minutes. Recent tensions between the Bordeaux players and their fans don’t help, either: there are no guarantees the home side will even be able to count on proper support.”

James’s bet: Back St Etienne Draw No Bet @ 2.35/4

Chelsea 1.9210/11 v Arsenal 4.57/2, the Draw 3.814/5
19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Arsenal’s bid for the top four is looking shaky – they’re out to 3.55/2 on the Exchange – and London rivals Chelsea could put another dent in the Gunners’ hopes.

Kevin Hatchard says: “Arsenal’s record against the top three this season is appalling, with five defeats out of five against Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea (they also lost to Liverpool in the League Cup). In those games they have conceded 15 goals and scored just once.

“Chelsea’s recent form has been shaky, but they can fully focus on the league until they play the FA Cup final, and they currently have less pressure than Arsenal. The Gunners have hit a slump at the worst possible time, and I think they’ll fall short here.

“You can back Chelsea on the Exchange’s Match Odds market here at 1.9210/11, but if you want a bigger price you can use the Sportsbook’s Bet Builder to double up a Chelsea win with an Under 3.5 Goals bet at 2.47/5. Only one of Arsenal’s last 12 league games have featured four goals or more.”

Kevin’s bet: Back Chelsea to win at 1.9210/11

Man City 1.222/9 v Brighton 20.019/1, the Draw 7.413/2
19:45

Man City are out of the FA Cup but they are the 1.434/9 favourites to win the Premier League and will be determined to take three more vital points here…

Ben Steele says: “Across all competitions this season Riyad Mahrez has played 40 games, scoring 22 times, along with his consistent ability to create goals as well. With De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden creating behind him the 31-year-old always gets his fair share of chances even against a team as strong defensively as Brighton.

“Graham Potter has built a strong defensive unit, who have only conceded 37 goals this season, but four of those came the last time these two sides faced off. Mahrez, who rounded off the scoring in City’s 4-1 win at the Amex in October, is Evens to score anytime on Wednesday night and match his highest scoring Premier League tally since arriving in Manchester…

“Much has been made of Manchester City’s lack of an out-and-out striker, and while Jesus has said he prefers to play wide he is probably the only player available to Pep with the skillset to consistently run in behind when his side have the ball while leading the press whenever City lose the ball. Guardiola’s side are heavy favourites to win the game (2/11) and will, undoubtedly, have a lot of the ball.

“With wingers like Mahrez and Raheem Sterling arriving late in the box for Jesus to pick out a Bet Builder of Gabriel Jesus to set up a goal and Manchester City to win offers great value @ 3.211/5.”

Ben’s bet: Back Riyad Mahrez to score anytime @ 2.01/1

Newcastle 2.427/5 v Crystal Palace 3.412/5, the Draw 3.412/5
19:45

The Magpies are flying at home and our previewer expects them to take maximum points when they host the Eagles on Wednesday.

Paul Robinson says: “Normally this would have the feel of an end of season fixture, where both sets of players are already “on the beach”.

“While that might turn out to be the case for Palace – it will be difficult to lift themselves again following the cup exit – Newcastle are a side on the up, and the players will want to show Howe what they can do.

“The Magpies have a big budget at their disposal over the summer, so even some of Howe’s January signings will still want to prove their worth.

“Given all of that, I make the hosts a good bet at around 2.3811/8 on the Betfair Exchange. The draw and a Palace win are both available to back at 3.412/5, but they don’t interest me at all really.”

Paul’s bet: Back Newcastle @ 2.3811/8

Everton 2.47/5 v Leicester 3.39/4, the Draw 3.55/2
19:45

There may be few goals on the cards when Frank Lampard’s men host the Foxes at Goodison on Wednesday…

Jamie Pacheco says: “The Foxes are 12 points better off than Everton. And they certainly haven’t disgraced themselves at Goodison Park over the years. In the last four here they drew two, won one and lost one.

“In addition to the fact that Everton have more at stake, the only other reason for Everton’s shortish price is that they’ve won their last two at home, beating Newcastle and Manchester United by the same 1-0 scoreline.

“But if it’s the Toffees you fancy, perhaps the 1-0 scoreline at 9.417/2 on the correct score market is a better alternative to the straight home win.

“Of the three, the draw is the best pick, though. Not just because it’s the biggest price but also because it’s the most common result between these two over the past four and the sort of result neither side would be too upset about.”

Jamie’s bet: Back Everton or Draw + Under 2.5 goals @ 2.255/4

Osasuna 5.85/1 v Real Madrid 1.75/7, the Draw 4.1
19:45
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

The La Liga leaders have the chance to claim three more points in the title race but it won’t be easy away at Osasuna…

Dan Fitch says: “Real Madrid took a huge step towards winning the La Liga title over the weekend and can take a further step when they travel to Osasuna on Wednesday night.

“Carlo Ancelotti’s team were up against Sevilla on Sunday, the only side to have really pushed Madrid at all in the title race this season. Sevilla were 2-0 up after 25 minutes, but in the second-half Real staged a comeback. Goals from Rodrygo and Nacho levelled the scores, before Karim Benzema notched the winner in injury time.

“The victory effectively ended Sevilla’s hopes of winning the league, with Real Madrid establishing a 15-point lead over the third placed club. Barcelona looked to be the only side with a chance of overturning Madrid, but their surprise 1-0 home defeat by Cadiz on Monday, leaves them also 15-points behind the leaders, albeit with a game in hand.

“Osasuna have the potential to make it a tough night for Real. Ninth in La Liga, they’ve won four of their last six games. We do however, have to assume that Real Madrid’s class will tell.”

Dan’s bet: Back Real Madrid @ 1.75/7