La Liga xG Tips: Levante and Alavés to come back to earth in Gameweek 33

“Levante’s impressive win at Granada on Sunday kept their survival hopes alive, and a 3.25 xGF average across the last three games shows they’re putting up a good fight.”

Mallorca v Alavés
Tuesday, 18:00
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With Mallorca dropping points over the weekend and Alavés earning a win, just four points separate these two strugglers. The hosts have produced solid numbers in front of their own fans this season, averaging 1.57 xGF at Visit Mallorca Estadi, and Infogol’s model expects them to put this to good use against visitors with the worst away xGA record across the entire league.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Betis to prolong unbeaten run

Real Betis v Elche
Tuesday, 20:00
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Atlético Madrid’s dramatic late win was heartbreaking for Betis when it comes to their hopes of catching the champions and claiming fourth spot. Manuel Pellegrini’s side may end up needing close to maximum points from their final six games, but Infogol does at least expect them to start in the right vein against an Elche side averaging just 0.93 xGF per game away from home.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2

Villarreal to preserve solid home form

Villarreal v Valencia
Tuesday, 20:30
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Villarreal have averaged a huge 2.19 xGF at home this season, but their domestic form has dropped off a little as they have made a run to the last four of the Champions League. They’re still expected to have enough against Valencia, though, with Pepe Bordalás’ side struggling to keep opponents at bay on their travels all season long and coming off a frustrating home defeat to Osasuna.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Atléti to get the job done against Granada

Atlético Madrid v Granada
Wednesday, 18:00
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While Atléti’s win over Espanyol was dramatic, it remained in keeping with the xG from the game. Still, Diego Simeone’s side will hope Wednesday’s game is a little calmer as they aim to get the better of opponents who have conceded eight in their last two. Granada’s last six games have seen them average 2.35 xGA per game, and another loss in the capital will deepen their relegation fears.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.208/1

Celta to keep climbing

Celta Vigo v Getafe
Wednesday, 19:00
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After claiming an impressive win at Athletic Bilbao on Sunday, Celta will continue looking up rather than down as they host Getafe. The visitors are still waiting for a first away win of the season, with their 0.84 xGF average hurting their chances so far, and Infogol’s model backs the hosts to complete a double after winning against their nine-man opponents back in October.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2

Madrid to halt in-form Osasuna

Osasuna v Real Madrid
Wednesday, 20:30
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Osasuna have won their last three at El Sadar, averaging 2.37 xGF per game in the process, but Real Madrid will give them a sterner test if the rest of the season is anything to go by. The league leaders were held to a goalless draw in the reverse fixture, but one of the best away xG records at both ends of the pitch points to a victory for Carlo Ancelotti’s title-chasers.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Espanyol and Rayo to share the points

Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano
Thursday, 18:00
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Rayo were victors at RCDE Stadium last season as both teams ended up winning promotion, but Andoni Iraola’s side have found away wins harder to come by in the top flight. Neither of these sides has been in the best of form of late, and Infogol gives both an identical chance of victory in a game where a home win would all but guarantee Espanyol finish the season above their opponents.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.205/1

Levante to lose more ground

Levante v Sevilla
Thursday, 18:00
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Levante’s impressive win at Granada on Sunday kept their survival hopes alive, and a 3.25 xGF average across the last three games shows they’re putting up a good fight. It’s rare for Sevilla to give up those kind of numbers, though, and Infogol’s model expects Julen Lopetegui’s side to use their 1.14 xGA away average to their advantage and keep their struggling opponents at arm’s length.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1 or 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Cádiz to fall short at home

Cádiz v Athletic Bilbao
Thursday, 19:00
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Cádiz’s home return of just two wins is the lowest in La Liga, and they’ll need to change something if they want to guarantee survival. Athletic aren’t in the best of form themselves, with just one win in five, and the reverse fixture went the way of the relegation battlers. However, Infogol doesn’t even expect that to be enough for Cádiz as they continue their scramble for points.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 10.5019/2

Barça to continue top four pursuit

Real Sociedad v Barcelona
Thursday, 20:30
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Barcelona’s away form has continued to catch the eye under Xavi, with a 2.02 xGF average enough to worry any opponent. La Real lost the corresponding fixture 6-1 last season, and conceded four more at Camp Nou on the opening weekend this time around, and Infogol’s model can’t see beyond an away win which would essentially end the hosts’ faint hopes of a top-four finish.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2