League Two Tips: Back Sutton in Bank Holiday sun

Gray’s men on a roll after cup final loss

Sutton 2.568/5 v Newport 3.39/4; the draw 3.613/5

Sutton United have been in blinding form at home. Furthermore, their EFL Trophy final defeat doesn’t seem to have drained them, but inspired them.

A home win over in-form Leyton Orient – defender Joe Kizzi scoring yet again – before Friday’s incredible result at Mansfield has put their promotion campaign tremendously back on track.

A fantastic start with Omar Bugiel scoring after nine minutes put the Stags on the back foot. When David Ajiboye made it two after half time Nigel Clough’s men must have wondered what had hit them. A gap of five points has opened up between third and fourth place as a result. Matt Gray’s men thoroughly dented their hosts’ chances of automatic promotion while enhancing their own of making the play-offs.

Sutton are 13 games unbeaten at Gander Green Lane, albeit drawing with many of their promotion rivals. Newport are just about still that, but not on a great run of form which frustrates their second manager of the season, James Rowberry.

A surprise loss at home to Crawley on Friday was preceded by defeating Swindon, proving they can dent a rival’s promotion bid. They have played some tough teams of late and have suffered some inconsistency with two wins, three defeats and a draw.

James Waite has his second goal for the club now, but can Finn Azaz or Courtney Baker-Richardson secure a goal to edge them closer to the top seven? Dom Telford hasn’t scored in a while. Sutton could well hold off their play-off candidate rivals.

Reds can continue to run well at home

Crawley 2.56/4 v Walsall 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

Headlines stating a club has won twice in the two games since being taken over by new owners is stretching for a pointless statistic. The new American cryptocurrency millionaires can’t affect what happens on the pitch, unless they change the manager, outside transfer windows.

However, the buzz around a new ownership might have given the Reds’ players a new focus, knowing that potentially any of them could be ditched in the summer if they don’t perform now. Striker Ashley Nadesan made the bold statement that the Sussex club were looking for six points over Easter. They saw off promotion hopefuls Newport on Friday. That for me was a shock result, but perhaps not for boss John Yems who expects much.

Crawley do have great attacking strengths, when everybody is fit. Kwesi Appiah might be in and out with injuries, but Nadesan has Tom Nichols alongside him and whoever plays up top always looks capable of scoring. At the back, George Francomb continues to play in a number of roles and the hosts continue with three at the back, as Yems struggles with defensive numbers and options.

Will Ferry put in another fine performance as the Reds took a fourth win from six matches.

The main reason to think they can pull off another win is that they have three straight victories at the Broadfield Stadium. Let’s couple that with Walsall’s away record which includes 11 defeats and only four wins.

Boss Micky Flynn has become frustrated after an initial bounce – largely – after he took over as manager.

A victory over Carlisle on Friday was a first in five and came after three straight defeats. They have conceded in five of their past six games. Away, they have picked up two points in five games. George Miller could do with scoring, especially after Conor Wilkinson was sidelined for up to a year with a knee injury.

Keeper Jack Rose knows he is playing for his future, while stepping in for injured stopper Carl Rushworth. He is not the only one as Flynn will aim to make the squad his own in his first transfer window.

Oldham’s turn to fight from bottom

Forest Green 1.4640/85 v Oldham 8.415/2; the draw 5.04/1

Crossing my fingers and hoping, the above two tips look solid amid a tricky Monday fixture list. Now, I head off to reading between the lines territory and a left-field tip. Or is it? Forest Green look far too short for me, given their recent slump in form before apparently turning it around again. Oldham, meanwhile, are now the club in trouble at the bottom and really can’t afford to lose.

Having assessed that Stevenage had to win because of a tough run-in, Oldham’s looks worse: Salford (h), Tranmere (a), both going for promotion and then Crawley (h). They could be relegated long before that final fixture.

Manager John Sheridan inherited a side seven points away from safety when he came back to the club. Nicky Adams believed, before Friday, they had given themselves a massive chance to stay up. As a quality player, he will be the first to find new pastures should the Latics sink into non-league.

After a battling defeat at Port Vale, losing 3-2 but never having led, they succumbed to Northampton on Friday. However they would have come off the pitch to see other results and been as stunned as the result of us to see Forest Green losing 4-0 at Barrow. Would Davis Keillor-Dunn, whose goals seem to be keeping the Latics alive, or Will Sutton, who has scored two in recent weeks, have thought they have an opportunity to win on Monday?

That might be stretching a point, but they could earn a point. I think it is worth laying Rovers, to cover the draw or away win, because they seem to be suffering from vertigo or some sort of mountain air sickness. Such great work to reach the summit has been followed, from mid-February, by a stunning slump.

A seven game winless run seemed to be countered by three straight wins. But goals by Matt Stevens (now injured), Dan Sweeney and Josh March, given them a trio of 1-0 wins, seems just to have papered over some cracks.

The best of those results was against Mansfield, while defeating Scunthorpe and Colchester should have been easier meat for them. A 1-1 draw at home to Hartlepool followed. In each of their past 12 games, they have mustered a maximum of one goal. Now would be the time for Jamille Matt to add to his 17 goals.

And with boss Rob Edwards declaring that the Barrow defeat was not a performance by a Forest Green side plus Exeter within striking distance of the top, they need to look over their shoulders not just as to whether they can clinch the title, but automatic promotion at all. They should not expect an easy ride here.

Tranmere could hold Grecians to draw

Tranmere 3.412/5; v Exeter 2.56/4; the draw 3.39/4

Finally, here’s the draw prediction. I think Port Vale v Bristol Rovers is another candidate but literally any result could happen there. Neither side have a particular penchant for draws, however, but Tranmere certainly do and Exeter might fall into that trap against them.

The Grecians have drawn once in the last six and only twice in the past 10, both 0-0 as it happens, against fellow promotion chasers Port Vale and Salford City. What happened 11 games ago? Another draw, against promotion hunting Bristol Rovers.

Having conceded just one goal in their past six games, Matt Taylor’s men they have to be in with a strong chance of victory, too. But Padraig Amond, Tim Dieng, and Offrande Zanzala might find it tough to break down the hosts.

A bit of Matt Jay scoring magic from a free kick or outside the box wouldn’t go amiss. Exeter will be desperate to secure a top three spot – and possibly even the title at this rate – because of their play-off heartaches in recent years.

Micky Mellon’s men have had three consecutive scoring draws, two at home against in-form Bristol Rovers and Carlisle. Four draws from the past five have really hit their promotion hopes. They really can’t afford to lose. But they haven’t had a focal point up front whom you could say they rely on for goals.

Kane Hemmings and Elliott Nevitt have six apiece, not 10+ as you would expect from a promotion hoping team at this stage. With the vastly experienced Peter Clarke at the back they might be able to defend and hold out for a draw, although they have conceded in their past five. Once per game for the most part. Chance the draw.