Premier League xG Tips: Brentford and Newcastle to escape danger in Gameweek 33

“Brentford’s victory over West Ham lifted them 12 points clear of the bottom three, and their 36 points could already be enough for survival.”

Spurs to succeed where Arsenal failed

Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 12:30

Tottenham stole a march in the top four race when Arsenal slipped up at home to Brighton last weekend, but Antonio Conte’s side aren’t expected to make the same mistake. Conte’s men have averaged a huge 2.92 xGF per game across their last three at home, scoring 13 goals in the process, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect the visitors to be able to keep them at bay.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Man Utd to rediscover winning thread

Manchester United v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00

After suffering another blow last time out, all Man Utd can do is focus on their own fixtures and hope their rivals for Europe drop points. Thankfully for Ralf Rangnick, opponents Norwich have averaged 3.13 xGA per game across four road fixtures since they won at Watford in January, and Infogol’s model backs the hosts to pick up a first win in four after a tough few weeks.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Arsenal to compound Southampton’s home misery

Southampton v Arsenal
Saturday, 15:00

Southampton’s 6-0 home loss last weekend was their fourth defeat in a row at St Mary’s in all competitions, and Arsenal should feel they can take advantage. The reverse fixture in December brought a comfortable win for the London side, who scored three without reply, and Mikel Arteta’s men have the quality to rebound from successive defeats and keep themselves in top four contention.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1

Brentford to all but clinch survival

Watford v Brentford
Saturday, 15:00

Brentford’s victory over West Ham lifted them 12 points clear of the bottom three, and their 36 points could already be enough for survival. Another three ought to make absolutely sure, though, and Infogol backs them to increase the Hornets’ own relegation worries by completing a league double after a last comeback brought the Bees a last-gasp victory in the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Newcastle to close in on safety

Newcastle United v Leicester City
Sunday, 14:15

Leicester’s 2.03 away xGA average is hardly the healthiest out there, and Newcastle have a chance to take advantage and deliver a win which would move them closer to safety. Eddie Howe’s side have won their last two at St James’ Park, including an impressive three points against Wolves last time out, and Infogol’s model backs them to claim another win to boost their survival bid.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

West Ham to win after European exertions

West Ham United v Burnley
Sunday, 14:15

West Ham’s December trip to Burnley ended goalless after a dismal game, and the Hammers will need to take advantage of their impressive home record. David Moyes’ side are averaging 1.71 xGF at the London Stadium, though things are rarely easy against opponents fighting for their lives, and much may depend on the ability of the hosts to recover after their Thursday night trip to Lyon.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2