Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as third and fourth meet at the BayArena…
“RB Leipzig have finally reached a point where their away results are matching their underlying numbers, and a road average of 1.84 xGF may well worry Bayer Leverkusen.”
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Victory for Augsburg on Saturday would lift them nine points clear of Hertha with four games left, meaning this is a huge one for the relegation battle. Infogol backs the home side, with the visitors’ 2.05 xGA away average counting against them, and time is running out for Felix Magath’s side as they play the first of three remaining games against opponents in the bottom five.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Dortmund to make sure of top four finish
Borussia Dortmund v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Victory for Dortmund on Saturday would ensure they need just one more point to mathematically make sure of a top four finish, and it would take a collapse to see them finish any lower than second. Marco Rose’s side came from behind to win the reverse fixture back in November, and Infogol’s model expects them to complete a double over opponents still pushing to confirm their own safety.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Freiburg to stay in top four contention
Freiburg v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg’s hopes of Champions League football haven’t vanished entirely, but they probably can’t afford any more slip-ups. Their first task is beating poor travellers Bochum, who won their last away game but are averaging a huge 2.08 xGA on the road, and Christian Streich’s hosts should feel confident of taking all three points to put pressure on those above them in the table.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Mainz to keep Stuttgart in trouble
Mainz v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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Mainz have been struggling for results of late, while visitors Stuttgart are fighting for their lives, but Infogol still expects Bo Svensson’s side to come out on top at Mewa Arena. The visitors have averaged 1.86 xGA away from home, which suggests Mainz will have opportunities to get on the scoresheet, and they’re expected to gain revenge for their narrow defeat in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Gladbach to go five unbeaten
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Köln
Saturday, 17:30
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10 points from the last four games have lifted Gladbach towards mid-table, and they can close to within three points of Köln by beating them at Borussia-Park on Saturday. Adi Hütter’s side are averaging 1.97 xGF at home, with only a poor defensive return keeping them from a higher league standing, and Infogol’s model anticipates a home win as they continue to finish strongly.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Bayern to put Europe heartbreak behind them
Arminia Bielefeld v Bayern Munich
Sunday, 14:30
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After dropping out of the Champions League in midweek, Bayern have the welcoming sight of a trip to Bielefeld. Arminia are struggling for any kind of result, though they have run Bayern close before, and Infogol backs Julian Nagelsmann’s side to get the three points they need to put themselves on the cusp of yet another league title.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 10.5019/2
Hoffenheim to get European push back on track
Hoffenheim v Greuther Fürth
Sunday, 14:30
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A top-four finish might be out of Hoffenheim’s grasp after three successive defeats, but Sebastian Hoeneß can still lead his team into Europe with a strong finish to the campaign. Fürth’s sway record has been dismal all season, with a 2.17 xGA average and just two points from 14 games, and they’re not expected to get any more points on the board against their high-flying opponents.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.0010/1
Union to win third on the spin
Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday, 16:30
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If Hoffenheim slip up again, Union can pounce and overtake them with a result against Eintracht Frankfurt. The hosts are coming off back-to-back wins, even if the four goals against Hertha flattered them a little, and Infogol’s model backs Urs Fischer’s men to gain revenge for Evan Ndicka’s stoppage-time winner when these two teams last met in the Bundesliga.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Leipzig to climb to third
Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 18:30
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RB Leipzig have finally reached a point where their away results are matching their underlying numbers, and a road average of 1.84 xGF may well worry Bayer Leverkusen. Just a single point separates the teams, with Freiburg breathing down their necks in fifth, so a win for the visitors could see them cement their Champions League qualification while leaving their opponents’ in doubt.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Source: Betfair German
