Alex Keble looks ahead to the four midweek Champions League matches, predicting Bayern will go out as Chelsea and Man City find it tough…
“They will again start in a 3-5-2 formation, but unlike the first leg Simeone must give his wing-backs the freedom to burst forward.”
Real Madrid v Chelsea
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The defining factor in the first leg was, of course, the brilliance of Karim Benzema. The way he dropped between the lines to get on the ball and set Vinicius Junior away consistently pushed Chelsea back and got Real Madrid into dangerous positions, while Benzema’s two headers put the tie in the Spanish side’s hands.
The reason for Benzema’s dominance was a lightness in Thomas Tuchel’s central midfield. Jorginho and N’Golo Kante got lost trying to keep track of Benzema while Luka Moric and Toni Kroos burst forward on the ball, the Real midfield trio combining with Benzema to create a four-on-two in the middle. Chelsea must ensure Mason Mount starts deeper this time to add numbers in the midfield battle.
But Tuchel also needs more from his front line to counter-punch. Real will expect to hold more of the ball and territory at the Bernabeu, meaning chances for Chelsea to hit in the transition – making Timo Werner‘s performance against Southampton well timed. His runs on the shoulder may stop Real from taking such a commanding footing in the game, while giving Mount an opportunity to create chances for the visitors. It ought to be an open contest.
Bayern Munich v Villarreal
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
All that’s required of Villarreal is more of the same. They got their tactical plan exactly right in the first leg, Unai Emery – as usual – focusing on quick transitions with four players bursting through the lines whenever the chance came, mainly doing so down the flanks and after first drawing Bayern onto them. Villarreal will suck you into a press before suddenly changing gear and galloping into the spaces behind.
The only regret from the first leg is that Villarreal are not further ahead. Daniel Parejo and Giovani Lo Celso were superb weaving behind an old-looking Bayern midfield that can play too slowly under Julien Nagelsmann, especially when up against such well-drilled defence that only looks vulnerable when shaken into a decompressed game. That won’t happen in the second leg, but on home soil Bayern’s forwards could still turn the tie around.
Then again, it took a penalty to beat Augsburg 1-0 at the weekend. Bayern are going through a sticky spell at just the wrong moment, and should Villarreal ride out the first 20 minutes they have the platform and the focused tactical strategy to cause a major upset.
Atletico Madrid v Man City
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Atletico Madrid failed to have a single shot on goal in the first leg, and yet it was almost mission accomplished; one moment of genius from Phil Foden has given Man City a crucial advantage, one that forces Atleti to open up a little bit more – at least for the final half an hour of this second leg. For Diego Simeone’s side to win by two goals will require a much better performance from his forwards.
They will again start in a 3-5-2 formation, but unlike the first leg Simeone must give his wing-backs the freedom to burst forward. Antoine Griezmann and Joao Felix were consistently isolated, struggling up against the swarming Man City defenders because they had no out-ball on the flanks to relieve pressure and get the rest of the team up the pitch. Much rests on the bravery of the Atleti manager; on Yannick Carrasco.
Carrasco, unavailable for the first leg, can start at left wing-back to apply serious pressure on Kyle Walker’s side should the England right-back be drawn forward in the hope of giving a frustrated Man City more options in the final third. Carrasco aside, Atletico need much more from Greizmann, who was poor in the first leg. His link-up play with Felix is vital, and may well be helped by Carrasco appearing as another option on the break.
Liverpool v Benfica
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
This tie is surely already over and with an FA Cup semi-final this weekend Jurgen Klopp is likely to brave making big changes to the team. Naby Keita, Luis Diaz, Roberto Firmino, and Ibrahima Konate will all be rotated back in, but whoever lines up for the hosts they surely have the firepower and directness through the lines to beat Benfica.
Benfica are not very sure-footed defensively, due to the expansive and dominant way they tend to play domestically. That is why, despite holding little of the ball in the first leg, they still left lots of space in behind, allowing Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane to make clever runs on the shoulder of the last defender.
That will happen again on Wednesday, perhaps even more effectively with Firmino dropping into central midfield. He will help to overload Benfica’s two-man midfield and draw centre-backs towards him, creating yet more room for Diaz and Salah.
Source: Betfair Champions League
