Aston Villa v Tottenham: Kane can lead the way for another Spurs victory

Villa meandering at the wrong time

Aston Villa boss Steven Gerrard has plenty of credit in the bank, but a run of three successive defeats has led to the first murmurings of criticisms – former Villa striker Stan Collymore was worried how the expensively assembled team didn’t turn up for 70 minutes last week in the Wolves derby, saying it was not good enough for the spend, wages or hype.

That’s two ‘Ls’ next to their name now against the Midlands rivals having imploded to lose three goals in the final five minutes in that particular reverse fixture.

Five defeats for their last eight games, with one of those the 0-1 home loss to Watford, puts them in that dangerous end-of-season mid-table territory. A team that while expensively assembled, are still struggling to be a cohesive unit.

Zoning in on the loss to Bruno Lage’s team, it’s now 13 games this season against the teams above them in the table, Villa have scored only four points – the win and draw against Manchester United, and United are absolutely dreadful. It poses a big question for this weekend.

For a Top 10 Finish, the Villa are now 2.35/4 and need to eradicate the inconsistencies. Their xG output was a poor 1.03 to Watford, but they did produce that spectacular 4-0 win against Southampton recently – a game I got them totally wrong in.

Ruben Neves is out for at least a month after picking up a knee ligament injury against Leeds, while striker Raul Jimenez started a two-game suspension after being sent off against the Whites.

Ashley Young, Douglas Luiz and Emiliano Buendia were all left out for the Molineux game last weekend. Danny Ings and Luca Digne are expected to return to the squad.

The Conte miracle is still on

Is Antonio Conte’s “miracle” of the top-four position on? If you think it is, the north Londoners are 2.0811/10 for that particular bet in the Top 4 Finish market but they are in flying and in goalscoring form. Big wins against Everton (5-0), was followed by hammerings of West Ham (3-1) and Newcastle last weekend (5-1) and are now five points behind Chelsea for third.

Last Saturday’s drubbing of Newcastle means that Spurs have now scored more goals (30) than any other Premier League team in 2022, with new recruits Cristian Romero , Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski all starring in their particular roles. Kulusevski took his assist tally to five, while Romero looked excellent at the back.

Conte’s coaching and well-drilled methods are working, mostly with Harry Kane, who was championed by the Italian in this week’s press conference by saying it’s very difficult to improve the skipper, but he will push him to “be one of the best, best in the world and in history”. High praise indeed.

Team news for the Lillywhites means that Ryan Sessegnon and Sergio Reguilon have returned to training, but Oliver Skipp won’t make the trip.

The tale of the tape between these two sees Spurs out on top on the historic head-to-head with 23 wins to Villa’s 15, and a much greater goal tally of 76 to 57, and the Spurs win price of 2.3211/8 doesn’t look too bad. It’s where I am leaning.

It’s not quite as exotic as last week’s win bet on Norwich at 8.615/2, although I am still berating myself at not playing on the Double Chance in the 0-0 versus Brighton for my previous match preview. The Under 1.5 bet landed, but sometimes we can all get a bit too ambitious, although siding with Spurs is hardly such a notion.

Since Conte’s first league game in charge back in November, only Liverpool and Manchester City (both 50) have earned more points in the Premier League than Spurs’ 39. If you took those two at Villa, they would be a lot shorter, so I think there is value, as they would be odds-on.

Kane’s performance against Newcastle last weekend was described as one of his best ever, his ability to drop deep in pockets is causing havoc, and he’s having more touches per game than under Mauricio Pochettino, he is completing more passes in the final third than ever before and as usual he gets away plenty of shots. The fact that Spurs have won 10 away and scored 31 at home boosts the bet idea even more.

While Villa aren’t quite laying bet material at the odds, the month of April has not been kind to them down the years; with Villa winning just four of their last 30 Premier League matches in April (D9 L17) and nine losses from their last 11 games in the month (W1 D1) – their one win was a 3-1 home victory over Fulham last year.

Spurs have scored 43 goals in their 20 Premier League matches under Conte (W12 D3 L5); in Premier League history, the only managers to see their teams score more goals in their first 20 games in charge at a club are Carlo Ancelotti at Chelsea in 2009 (45 goals) and Manuel Pellegrini at Manchester City in 2013-14 (57 goals), so the Over 2.5 Goals is the shorter of the two, not by much, at 1.910/11.

They produced a huge xG of 3.61 against Newcastle, while only giving up a defensive process of 0.54. They even bettered Manchester United’s xG at Old Trafford but lost 3-2 and that ability to score goals and open teams up – especially with the way Villa are defending, puts us in a good position to have a go at goals along with the Spurs win. Combining those two on the Sportsbook Betbuilder pays 3.39/4 on the double.

That bet would have landed six of the last eight, and Tottenham have won their last six Premier League away games at Villa Park according to Opta. Backing the Over 2.5 in all Spurs games would have landed 15 times since December.

It’s captain Kane again, who has scored in all three of his away Premier League appearances against Villa, netting in 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2020-21. The only player to score in four consecutive away Premier League appearances against Villa is Romelu Lukaku (2013-2021).

A rare lay of the England forward last weekend against Newcastle in the First Goalscorer and Anytime Scorer market would have been surprisingly successful, as he drew a rare blank despite a 5-1 win. However, his passing was immaculate and he prised open Eddie Howe’s men like a can of beans with the way he dropped back into space in a second-half performance described as sensational.

I won’t be laying him, but there are some very big prices if Kane has another starring role with some special bets. Harry Kane to assist 1 or more goals in each half & have 1 or more shots on target in each half pays an enormous 225/1, which isn’t the worst ever no-hoper bet.

More realistic is the Harry Kane 1 or more shots on target from outside the box & 1 or more headed shots on target at 17/2.

According to Opta, his strike partner Son Heung-Min has scored and assisted in 20 Premier League matches for Spurs – since his debut, only Mohamed Salah (23 games) has done so more often. He has been directly involved in 15 goals in his last 16 Premier League appearances (10 goals, 5 assists). Backing Son to Score A Goal Assisted by Kane is 12/1 on the Sportsbook.