Burnley v Everton: Stats point to few goals between relegation rivals

Burnley can move to within a point of Everton if they win Wednesday’s crucial relegation dogfight.

This match was originally meant to take place on Boxing Day, only to be postponed because of the number of Covid 19 cases. The rescheduled fixture now has a lot more on the line than if it had taken place when planned. Burnley are 19th in the table after 28 games, with Everton four points ahead of them in 17th place.

With both Watford and Norwich having played 30 games, it is Burnley that look most likely to climb out of the bottom three, of the teams currently in the relegation zone. Yet it’s fair to say that this hope is more based on past exploits than on current form. Burnley have lost each of their last four games, without scoring a goal.

Sean Dyche will be without the injured Ben Mee, Erik Pieters and Johann Gudmundsson, while Matej Vydra is a doubt. After playing with Wout Weghorst as a lone striker in the 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City at the weekend, Dyche may well return to his favoured 4-4-2 formation, with Burnley needing a victory against Everton.

Lampard keeps losing on the road

When this fixture was meant to be played, back in December, Everton had recently enjoyed a home win against Arsenal, an away draw against Chelsea and still had Rafa Benitez in charge.

Benitez was sacked in mid-January following a slump in form, but the decision did not result in an improvement in fortunes. Despite the recruitment of Frank Lampard and an influx of players in January, Everton have not improved.

The Toffees have only won two of their eight Premier League games under Lampard, with his side defeated 2-1 away at West Ham over the weekend. Across all competitions, Everton have lost all five of their away games since Lampard was appointed, scoring just two goals and conceding 16.

A lengthy injury list is not helping Everton’s chances of staying in the top flight. Seamus Coleman, Nathan Patterson, Yerry Mina, Fabian Delph, Andre Gomes, Tom Davies and Andros Townsend, were all missing in the match against West Ham with injuries.

Draw is the value in result market

Burnley are the favourites at 2.6613/8, with an Everton win at 3.185/40 and the draw at 3.259/4.

That seems a fair assessment. Both teams are playing very poorly and only home advantage swings things in Burnley’s favour.

Yet with Burnley having won only two home games in the Premier League all season (P14 W2 D6 L6), it’s hard to have much faith in them. If backing the hosts, do so in the Draw No Bet market at 1.834/5, but the draw itself looks the best value at 3.259/4.

Everything points to a low scoring match

A low scoring match seems likely. Burnley are struggling to find the net but they are keeping things pretty tight at the back. Of their last eleven Premier League games, under 2.5 goals has landed on nine occasions.

That statistic makes the 1.738/11 on offer for under 2.5 goals look rather generous. You can back ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.875/6. That too, seems generous, having also landed in nine of Burnley’s last eleven games.

When you combine those two wagers in a Bet Builder, with Burnley to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 4/11 on the Sportsbook, you can get odds of 2.97.