Brighton v Norwich City: Is it time for Smith to gamble against Potter?

Potter is losing his magic

For a season that promised so much and the much-heralded Graham Potter as the most sought-after manager in the top flight, Brighton’s season has been a flat-out disappointment. Heading into Saturday’s home fixture at the Amex, the Albion are down in 13th and are only four points above Leeds. Luckily there are plenty of worse teams down at the bottom, but the victory of Watford at Southampton (much to my expense) highlights the dangers of these type of fixtures.

Potter has welcomed the international break, but there’s a sense of edginess amongst the fans gauging by the reaction on Twitter. It’s galling that Crystal Palace are above them for a start, but they’ve lost six on the spin with the Lewis Dunk goal at Newcastle the only reward for their efforts. That was their best recent performance in terms of their xG output, as they recorded a process of 1.58. Sadly, that looks a bit of a one-off, as their xG figure against Aston Villa was a paltry 0.63xG. Their Burnley one was even lower.

At least my hunch that the hosts were (and are) overrated is close to collecting as one of my ante-post bets was laying Brighton for a Top Six Finish before Christmas. I’m not usually in the habit of taking on 5/1 chances, but I couldn’t see it then, and they’ve disappeared over the horizon for that now.

The need for a goalscorer is apparent, and with just 10 goals scored at the Amex all season and just three wins, another loss for Potter might lead to some uncomfortable questions. How he wishes he could field the ones linked with Tottenham and Newcastle!

Team news for the hosts centres around the trio of Moises Caicedo, Adam Webster and Adam Lallana, who are all ruled out.

Canaries look down and almost out

With nine games remaining and rooted to the foot of the table, the only joy I take is that backing Norwich for Rock Bottom with a 3pt bet a long time ago is another of the antepost bets that looks almost over the line. There is often plenty of value in those markets at Christmas time as there is often overreaction.

I remember my own team West Ham mentioned as a Champions League possible under Manuel Pelligrini. The same with Everton under Carlo Ancelotti following James Rodriguez’ one good game – and both never happened or even got close.

Manager Dean Smith faces a poser. Does he accept his fate and build for next season? Does he continue with the meek performances and poor defending? Or does he simply just gamble and go for it as he has nothing lose?

Their 2-1 loss at Leeds seems a long time ago, their 20th defeat of the Premier League season, in what was their 29th game of the campaign – this is the joint-fewest games they’ve played upon reaching their 20th defeat in a league season. That’s a horror stat, but they did at least show some fight at Elland Road. Smith was aggrieved at one or two late decisions, but after a poor start, they came back with a bit of intent.

Ben Gibson, Lukas Rupp and Milot Rashica all came in for that game with three changes, but their starting eleven looks quite weak.

The head-to-head between the two is as lacklustre from both as it is regarding the pair’s recent run of results. Norwich have zero wins and zero goals with one clean sheet. While the Seagulls have at least got a win; two of them. They’ve also kept a clean sheet in all three of the matches against the Canaries.

Both clubs have lost their last six PL matches – this will be the third ever Premier League meeting between two sides on 6+ game losing streaks, after Sunderland 1-2 West Bromwich Albion (April 2003) and Sheffield United 1-1 Fulham (October 2020). Lofty company.

Those stats alone don’t reflect the betting with the hosts at 1.548/15 and Norwich at 8.615/2. In truth, this is a nightmare to price up. I half expected the hosts to be very short, and they tend to be anyway, but it’s indicative of just how bad Norwich are that you can back them at any price you like against a team that can’t win a game.

With just two wins on the road all season, there’s a glimmer. Delving deeper, both those victories came against fellow strugglers Watford and Brentford. Also Norwich’s rally against a rejuvenated Leeds was at least something to work with, as are some of the better xG numbers they have posted including the 1.40xG at Leeds.

Brighton have never won a Premier League game in April in 14 attempts (D7 L7). Only Hull City (16 in May) have played more games in a specific month without ever winning in the competition’s history, which is one stat to work with, and I am prepared to have a go here at the visitors at 8.615/2. The hosts form of six losses on the spin doesn’t make them 1.454/9 shots. Of course they could win, but I never like backing Brighton at 2.01/1, so I won’t be doing so now.

I was astonished to see the Under 2.5 up at 1.845/6 on Thursday evening, I thought it would be a lot shorter. Brighton have scored 26 goals this season, but have an expected goals value of 38 – the biggest negative difference between goals scored and xG in the competition this term (-12).

They’ve also netted just 10 at home, while Norwich have scored just eight away. Smith might attempt a set-up similar to Leeds and keep it tight for as long as possible. And one thing sides are quite adept at playing the Albion is keeping them away from goal. Earlier matches against Burnley and Aston Villa they mustered just a shot on target in each game, and while the Under 2.5 price is appealing, the Under 1.5 is the bet for me at 3.412/5.

I am slightly worried that City have lost their last two away league games against Brighton, going down 5-0 in October 2016 and 2-0 in November 2019, but they weren’t in such a bad trot then. Norwich also have the lowest expected goals tally (27), lowest shots-per-game rate (9.8) and lowest shot conversion rate (6.3%) in the competition this term. Under 1.5 it is.

Neal Maupay has scored 26 goals in the Premier League for Brighton – one more strike will see him become the Seagulls’ highest goalscorer in the competition (currently level with Glenn Murray). The Frenchman’s last two league goals have come against promoted sides – vs Brentford in December and Watford in February. Backing him in the Sportsbook Betbuilder to Score Anytime and Brighton to win pays 2.36.

Teemu Pukki’s eight goals this term is pushing him closer to the magical 100 for the club, but the forward played two recent international friendlies and looked quite leggy at Elland Road. He did score for Finland against Iceland, but as always if we can get around 2.68/5, I like to take on these bets with a lay.