Ste Tudor looks at where the goals, assists and three points will likely come from in the Premier League this week.
The Reds have won nine games straight in the league, conceding only twice along the way and though Joel Matip’s form deserves recognition it is telling that as the title race tenses up Liverpool are relying ever-more on their explosive frontline to see them home. Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino have notched 12 of their side’s last 15.
Mane has reserved three-quarters of his league haul this campaign for Anfield and buoyed by his international success this week let’s go for the Senegalese striker to break the deadlock against a Roy Hodgson collective who are in for an extremely tough afternoon.
Brighton v Norwich (Saturday, 15:00) – Goals at a premium
Between them these flailing sides have lost 13 on the bounce so expect confidence to be on the floor at the Amex which makes the opening goal so key. This is especially true given that the Seagulls and Canaries have gone behind a combined 41 times this term and only gone on to win one apiece. Whoever takes the lead on Saturday will almost certainly edge it.
Adam Webster may return at the back for Brighton but it’s at the other end where problems are most pronounced right now. Graham Potter’s men have scored only once in their last 548 minutes of competitive action.
Burnley v Man City (Saturday, 15:00) – A tough test at Turf Moor
The champions are unbeaten in 14 against the Clarets but thoughts go back to their nervy grind three years ago at Turf Moor, a nail-biter played out amidst a tight title race with Liverpool.
Then it took a Segio Aguero effort to settle matters halfway through the second half and a couple of factors prompt suspicions that history might repeat itself here.
Pep Guardiola’s magnificent creation has been jolted out of its rhythm with the international break while only two teams across Europe’s big five leagues have drawn more games this season than Burnley. Then there’s the nerves to consider.
Chelsea v Brentford (Saturday, 15:00) – Blues to eventually prevail
The Blues top the table for converting their chances in 2021/22, their 57 goals from 514 attempts amounting to a 11.1% ratio. This stat is even more impressive when it’s acknowledged that only Liverpool have had a greater number of goal-scorers.
Presently however, it is Kai Havertz who has taken on the mantle to finish off Chelsea’s studied build-up play, heading into the international break with four in four. The talented 22-year-old also found the net for Germany this week.
If Thomas Tuchel’s side share the glory around, Brentford very much look to Ivan Toney. The reignited striker boasts five in three and poses a real threat to the sanctioned hosts.
We can expect plenty of resistance from the Bees but Chelsea have made a habit of scoring in the second period of late, with eight of their last ten coming after the break.
Leeds v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00) – Save the Oles for another day
Exactly half a century ago this fixture offered up a sustained spell of showboating during a seven-goal rout that commentator Barry Davies described on Match of the Day as ‘cruel’.
This time out, only the points matter to Leeds, by any means necessary, as they seek to fend off the encroaching threat of relegation.
Which makes it all the crueler the timing of last week’s international break because the Yorkshire giants were just beginning to turn a corner under new boss Jesse Marsch, posting back-to-back wins, both necessitating last-minute winners.
As for the Saints they head to Elland Road nursing four consecutive defeats with midfielder Oriol Romeu admitting this week the club needed this opportunity to step back and reset.
Go for goals in this fascinating scrap with both team’s combined last 20 games treating us to an average of 3.5 per match.
Wolves v Aston Villa (Saturday, 15:00) – A mean average at Molineux
Both teams have been reduced to ten men on three occasions this term and with this being a Midlands derby discipline must be a factor. Villa have averaged 2.1 cautions per game this term, a ratio only worsened by Leeds and Newcastle.
Yet though Steven Gerrard has fired his new side up, taking them to the line of acceptability, and though Wolves are the Premier League’s undisputed masters of the dark arts what really jumps out here is that the hosts have become real Steady Eddies lately with their shots undertaken.
In their last eight games, only against Arsenal have Wolves not posted between 10 and 14 attempts on goal.
Manchester United v Leicester (Saturday, 17:30) – Not so feral Foxes
It’s entirely understandable that the Foxes tend to struggle when deprived of Jamie Vardy and there is no getting around the meagre two wins from nine when their poacher supreme has been absent this season. A renowned big game player, the 35-year-old will be hugely missed at Old Trafford as too will Wilfried Ndidi whose energy and simple knitted passing could have held sway in midfield.
There is also a mentality issue to consider, with Leicester gaining only seven points from the 16 times they have conceded first this season, and all of this will be music to the ears of Jadon Sancho who will be looking to take out his England omission on someone very soon. Since the start of February, the ever-improving winger has been directly involved in a goal every 153 minutes.
West Ham v Everton (Sunday, 14:00) – Toffees hammered
Everton’s league away record this term is a sight for sore eyes should you perversely wish to make them significantly sorer.
Played 13, won one, drawn three, and lost nine is the sorry summation with enough evidence to suggest the situation is only getting worse under new boss Frank Lampard. On their travels with the Chelsea legend in charge, the Toffees have conceded 3.3 goals-per-game. At Southampton and Spurs they failed to conjure up a single shot on target.
The Hammers therefore should be fancied to atone for a relatively passive defeat to Spurs pre-break even if missing once again is Jarrod Bowen, their red-hot frontman who has directly been involved in 37% of West Ham’s goals in the Premier League.
Epitomizing their turmoil, the Toffees are rock-bottom of the corner-count in the top-flight so that’s a decent place to start.
Tottenham v Newcastle (Sunday, 16:30) – Kane is able
With eight goals and two assists from 14 previous encounters, Harry Kane clearly relishes playing against the Magpies though at present he isn’t too fussed who stands before him. There’s the goal. Here’s the ball. On eight occasions in his last 10 appearances for club and country the latter has gone in the former.
Kane’s record-breaking partnership with Son Heung-min is the most obvious source for goals in North London on Sunday though it intrigues how Newcastle will respond to consecutive 1-0 losses on the road. Against Chelsea they held their own. Against Everton they were the better side. They remain in good shape and a thoroughly watchable contest awaits.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal (Monday, 20:00) – Honours even again
From just prior to Christmas onwards, the Gunners have been irresistible on their travels, racking up five wins from five as ‘Project Arteta’ flourishes. From around this period too, Arsenal have picked up an exceedingly handy habit of scoring early, finding the net nine times in the opening half an hour. Don’t rule out another bright start at Selhurst Park on Monday evening.
Palace have been in terrific form but here are without their sparkplug Wilfried Zaha while the brilliant prospect Michael Olise is a doubt also. Still, it’s at the back where Patrick Vieira’s work has most paid dividends, being breached only three times in their last ten and a half hours of Premier League football.
The hosts were mere seconds away from pulling off a famous triumph at the Emirates back in October, having to settle for a draw. They would be happy for that same outcome here.
Source: BetFair Tips