Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top two aim to cement their position…
“After finishing just a point apart last season, Dortmund and Leipzig are both in contention for another top-four finish.”
Union to recharge with home win
Union Berlin v Köln
Friday, 19:30
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Union have become more fallible at home in the second half of the season, but Infogol’s model still expects them to have too much for a Köln side with just three wins from 13 games on the road. The reverse fixture ended all-square, with Anthony Modeste rescuing a point for the hosts, but a home win at Stadion An der Alten Försterei would see Union leapfrog their opponents and stay in European contention.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2
Stuttgart to triumph in six-pointer
Arminia Bielefeld v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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Arminia can drag Stuttgart back into the relegation mire with a victory on Saturday, but Infogol backs Pellegrino Matarazzo’s visitors to pull away from danger with three points of their own. The home side have gone four games without scoring, averaging just 0.34 xGF per game in the process, and are expected to fall short despite having a theoretical home advantage.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Leverkusen to stay third with home win
Bayer Leverkusen v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Hertha delivered an important win before the international break, but they’re unlikely to have things easy this weekend at the BayArena. Felix Magath’s visitors are averaging just 0.94 xGF on the road, with that record producing less than one point per game, and Infogol backs Gerardo Seoane’s men to improve on the 1-1 draw they managed at the Olympiastadion back in November.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Fürth’s away misery to continue
Eintracht Frankfurt v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
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Greuther Fürth are still stuck on just one away point all season, and it would be a shock to see that miserable record change in Frankfurt. Their opponents are unbeaten in five games in all competitions, including an aggregate victory over Real Betis in the Europa League, and three points can help Oliver Glasner’s team cement their place in the top half after a testing campaign.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Bayern to dent Freiburg’s top-four hopes
Freiburg v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg sadly can’t have too many complaints about their dropped points at Greuther Fürth last week, with the underlying numbers supporting the outcome, and the result leaves them in need of a recovery against the champions-elect. Bayern’s 3.00 xGF average on the road is part of why they’re six points clear with seven games left, and Infogol doesn’t expect them to suffer a hiccup at Europa-Park Stadion.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 13.0012/1
Hoffenheim to revive top-four prospects
Hoffenheim v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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If Freiburg fall short against Bayern Munich, Hoffenheim are in line to capitalise. Last week’s setback in Berlin came as a surprise, but Sebastian Hoeneß will be happy to see poor travellers Bochum coming to PreZero Arena. The visitors are averaging a huge 2.08 xGA per game away from home, and Infogol’s model backs a home win which could sent Hoffenheim back into the Champions League spots.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Dortmund to win in clash of Champions League hopefuls
Borussia Dortmund v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 17:30
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After finishing just a point apart last season, Dortmund and Leipzig are both in contention for another top-four finish. The hosts have a decent cushion at this late stage of the campaign, and their average of 2.17 xGF per game at Signal Iduna Park gives them the upper hand according to Infogol, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Domenico Tedesco’s visitors run them close.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Wolfsburg to leave Augsburg in trouble
Augsburg v Wolfsburg
Sunday, 14:30
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Augsburg are sitting perilously close to the drop zone going into this weekend’s games, and may have fallen into it by the time they kick off on Sunday. Markus Weinzierl’s side are averaging just 1.41 xGF at home – few Bundesliga sides have a lower average – and Infogol’s model expects Wolfsburg to complete a league double after winning the reverse fixture by one goal to nil.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Gladbach to cement mid-table security
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Mainz
Sunday, 16:30
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Borussia Mönchengladbach perhaps deserve more home points than they have, given their 2.00 xGF average at Borussia-Park, and they’ll surely fancy their chances against a Mainz side with just seven points on the road all season. Adi Hütter’s team are coming off their first back-to-back wins since October, and are unlikely to have a better opportunity to win three in a row.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Source: Betfair German
