Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as the European chase heats up…
“Barcelona are unstoppable at the moment, particularly in front of goal, and they are taking on Sevilla at an ideal time.”
Getafe to push towards safety
Getafe v Mallorca
Saturday, 13:00
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Mallorca’s poor form has seen them turn to Javier Aguirre, but the new boss will be up against it as he begins his tenure against opponents averaging just 0.98 xGA on home soil. Victory for the hosts could leave them a huge six points clear of the drop by the end of the gameweek, and Quique Sánchez Flores should be confident of delivering a huge win in the bid for safety.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2
Villarreal to prepare for Europe with away win
Levante v Villarreal
Saturday, 15:15
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Villarreal’s away form this season hasn’t been the best, despite solid enough underlying numbers, but they should still be fine against bottom of the table Levante. The hosts remain eight points from safety, with a 5-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, and Unai Emery’s men can go into their midweek clash with Bayern Munich with three more points on the board.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Real Madrid to rebound from Clásico hammering
Celta Vigo v Real Madrid
Saturday, 17:30
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The manner of Real Madrid’s defeat against Barcelona will worry Carlo Ancelotti, with the visitors good value for their four-goal margin of victory, but it’s only one game and the league leaders have what it takes to rebound at Balaídos. Celta have been hit and miss at home this season, and Infogol’s model backs an away victory which would keep Madrid at least nine points clear,.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Atléti to keep up winning run
Atlético Madrid v Alavés
Saturday, 20:00
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Atlético Madrid haven’t lost since February 16, and as a result they look set for a top-four finish. Victory over Alavés would keep the run going, and the visitors’ 2.17 xGA average away from home will be cause for concern as they travel to the Wanda Metropolitano hoping to avoid defeat away to the champions for the first time since the start of the 2016-17 stadium.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.809/1
Athletic to keep ticking in top half
Athletic Bilbao v Elche
Sunday, 13:00
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Elche’s away xGA average remains the worst in La Liga, and a trip to Bilbao in their first game back from the international break is unlikely to help. Athletic’s record at San Mamés is impressive, with a 2.04 xGF average, and three points for the hosts would leave Francisco’s side with a little more work to do before they can be sure of another year in La Liga.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 11.5021/2
Betis to cling onto top four hopes
Real Betis v Osasuna
Sunday, 15:15
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After dropping more points before the break, Betis have no margin for error when it comes to salvaging their hopes of Champions League qualification. Infogol backs them to turn things around against Osasuna, who have lost their last two with a 2.84 xGA average, and a home win would complete a league double after Betis’ away win at El Sadar back in September.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1 or 2-0 @ 11.0010/1
Rayo to take small step towards safety
Granada v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 17:30
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Just four points separate Granada and Rayo, who both sit just above La Liga’s relegation places. While the visitors have just one away win this term, the reverse fixture produced a comfortable win for Andoni Iraola’s side. Infogol backs the visitors to take the points at Nuevo Los Cárrmenes, and it would be enough to lift them further clear of the relegation places and give them some breathing room.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 12.0011/1
Valencia to go five unbeaten
Valencia v Cádiz
Sunday, 17:30
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Valencia have picked up 10 points from their last four games, averaging just 1.02 xGA in the process, and the unbeaten run can stretch to five with a result against Cádiz. The visitors are averaging just 0.99 xGF per game on the road, but pulled out of the bottom three with a victory last time out and will make Pepe Bordalás’ hosts work hard for their three points.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.6017/2
Barça to move into second
Barcelona v Sevilla
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona are unstoppable at the moment, particularly in front of goal, and they are taking on Sevilla at an ideal time. The two sides finished all-square when they met at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, so three points for the hosts would take them above Julen Lopetegui’s team on head-to-head and a home average of 2.35 xGF explains why Infogol makes the hosts favourites to claim the points.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.4013/2
Real Sociedad to keep up European charge
Real Sociedad v Espanyol
Monday, 20:00
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Three clean sheets in the last five games have kept Real Sociedad in European contention, and the six goals they have conceded in 14 games represents the best such record in the entire league. Espanyol came out on top in the reverse fixture, with Yangel Herrera wearing the only goal, but an away average of just 0.98 xGF on the road leaves Vicente Moreno’s side at a disadvantage.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.007/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
