Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions in a shortened gameweek…
“Spurs have improved a great deal since losing at West Ham in the autumn, and Infogol backs them to get the better of their London rivals and steal a march in the European chase.”
Wolves to keep European hopes alive
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leeds United
Friday, 20:00
Leeds got their first victory under Jesse Marsch last time out, creating plenty against struggling Norwich City despite being required to rely on a last-gasp winner. They’re likely to find things tougher at Molineux, though, with Wolves coming off successive clean sheets and averaging just 0.45 xGA across their victories over Watford and Everton in the space of just a few days.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Arsenal to earn yet another victory
Aston Villa v Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30
Steven Gerrard’s men have remained unpredictable at home this season, averaging 1.52 xGA, and this could count against them as Arsenal travel to Villa Park. The visitors have been in fine form, with the triumph over Leicester on Sunday perhaps the most convincing of their recent wins, and are expected to beat a team who they gave no chance in north London in October.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Leicester to end Brentford’s resurgence
Leicester City v Brentford
Sunday, 14:00
Leicester will have a little less recovery time than Brentford, thanks to their Europa Conference League involvement on Thursday night, but Infogol’s model still expects Brendan Rodgers’ side to get the better of opponents who could join them on 33 points with a win. The visitors are coming off successive wins, but the caveat here is that opponents Norwich and Burnley currently occupy the bottom two spots.
BTTS? Over
Over/Under 2.5? Yes
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Spurs to gain upper hand in London derby
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United
Sunday, 16:30
Spurs have improved a great deal since losing at West Ham in the autumn, and Infogol backs them to get the better of their London rivals and steal a march in the European chase. The Hammers have lost their last three on the road in three different competitions, and the hosts’ 1.90 xGF average at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium should be enough to bring Antonio Conte’s men three big points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Source: Betfair Premier League
