Arsenal have been strong at home this season but Leicester are on the up and can deny the Gunners victory on Sunday, says Dave Tindall…
“Most of the logic says Arsenal but Leicester look a fair old price and may be being underrated here. They’re not letting in goals and have a strong recent record in league matches that follow European action, winning four of the last six.”
Gunners firm favourites to bank fourth place
With Manchester United and West Ham losing admittedly tough fixtures to Manchester City and Liverpool respectively last weekend, Arsenal find themselves in pole position to land fourth spot.
If things go wrong at Chelsea, even third place isn’t out of the question.
Arsenal are only a point ahead of fifth-placed Man Utd and three clear of West Ham but, significantly, they have three games in hand on both!
Yes, theoretical points aren’t actual points but the Gunners have now won 15 of their last 22 Premier League games after losing the opening three.
That’s the form of a team worthy of a Champions League spot and it’s no surprise to see Mikel Arteta’s men trading at just 1.635/8 in the Top 4 Finish market.
Arsenal head into the game on a streak of four straight Premier League wins. After hosting Leicester, they then face a home game with Liverpool on Wednesday night.
Foxes starting to find some flow
Not so long ago, it seemed Leicester were at a fork in the road. Would they slide deeper into the lower half of the table as the disappointments continued to rack up or would Brendan Rodgers be able to get them going again?
Thankfully for Leicester fans it’s been the latter.
Perhaps helped by a favourable fixture list, Leicester have won four on the spin. That comprises Premier League wins over Burnley and Leeds and a pair of Europe Conference League successes over Randers and Rennes.
Notably, their defence has finally started keeping clean sheets after a poor run and Leicester haven’t conceded in any of their last three matches.
The Foxes go into the weekend only 12th but they’re only three points away from Aston Villa in ninth. Like Arsenal, they’ve also played only 25 times so have two or three games in hand over most of the sides around them.
Prices push initial logic towards Leicester
The hosts saw off Rodgers’ side in the first meeting between the two this season, starting fast with two goals in the first 18 minutes and holding that 2-0 advantage until the end although Leicester did throw plenty at them.
Arsenal are just 1.584/7 to bank all three points again while Leicester are 6.411/2 for revenge. The Draw is 4.67/2.
Looking at the table, the Gunners have been one of the division’s strongest home teams this season, winning nine, drawing two and losing two of their 13 games. Only Liverpool have conceded fewer home goals.
Leicester have just three away wins and have lost half their 12 road fixtures although they did triumph at Burnley the last time they travelled.
Most of the logic says Arsenal but Leicester look a fair old price and may be being underrated here. They’re not letting in goals and have a strong recent record in league matches that follow European action, winning four of the last six.
True, Arsenal have won their last four matches but all have been by single-goal margins so there hasn’t been much room for error.
With Leicester finding some confidence, I think they can take something so let’s try a lay of Arsenal at 1.68/13.
Leicester won at the Emirates last season and also managed a 1-1 draw in 2019/20 campaign so they have good recent memories there.
Defensive improvements should warn BTTS backers
Leicester were definitely a BTTS team earlier in the season but their new penchant for clean sheets has changed that.
It means there could be scope to go ‘No’ at 2.226/5. ‘Yes’ is 1.774/5 but don’t forget that BTTS didn’t land in the first meeting and has only been successful in two of their last five head-to-heads.
Barnes and Saka worth a look on the Bet Builder
Jamie Vardy is usually the man to upset Arsenal but the striker misses this one through injury.
Leicester’s best goal threat of late has been Harvey Barnes, the Foxes attacker scoring three in his last five.
For Arsenal, Bukayo Saka has six goals in his last eight Premier League games, including two in the last three.
Putting the two youngsters, Barnes and Saka, in an anytime scorer double on the Bet Builder pays around 16.015/1 so let’s have a small wager on the in-form pair.
Opta stat
Leicester‘s last two Premier League matches have produced wins over Burnley, 2-0, and Leeds United, 1-0. The Foxes have not won three consecutive league matches without conceding since a run of four in November 2019, the third of which was a 2-0 victory against Arsenal.
Source: Betfair Premier League
