Alex Keble looks ahead to the weekend games and predicts that Liverpool will make up further ground on Man City…
“Fred and Scott McTominay were blown away by Manchester City last weekend and it is highly unlikely these two, in such a disorganised press as Ralf Rangnick’s, will cope with Harry Kane dropping into the number ten position and dictating the game.”
Brighton v Liverpool
Saturday, 1:30
Live on BT Sport 1
In the reverse fixture Brighton came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 thanks to a daring tactical decision by Graham Potter to leave three attackers up the pitch in the second half, ensuring his team always had a big counter-attacking threat to get behind Liverpool’s defensive line. That success means he will likely be just as brave on Saturday as he looks to end a four-game losing streak.
Their poor form, however, means it is unlikely to work – despite the fact some vulnerability has crept back in at Liverpool recently. They can be got at in the transition, encouraging Potter to take that risk, and Brighton’s creativity problems may well be solved by being forced to sit deeper; Brighton have only lost once (v Man City) when holding less than 50% possession this season.
But the best they can realistically hope for is to get on the score sheet, because Brighton are continually leaking goals against opponents who attack directly and at pace, such as Aston Villa and Newcastle. The urgency of Liverpool’s football will prove too much.
Man Utd v Tottenham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
What’s most curious about this match is that neither team presses high, an anomaly in the modern game, meaning we should get a strangely passive performance in which the two shapes shuffle across, waiting for each other’s attacks. Both defences are vulnerable, both likely to get caught flat-footed by this reactive model, and both teams enjoy attacking in sudden quick bursts.
Consequently this should be an open game with chances for both sides, although in-form Tottenham have a clear advantage. Fred and Scott McTominay were blown away by Manchester City last weekend and it is highly unlikely these two, in such a disorganised press as Ralf Rangnick’s, will cope with Harry Kane dropping into the number ten position and dictating the game.
This is the key battle, although Spurs should dominate midfield regardless. Rodrigo Bentancur and Pierre-Emile Hjojberg are forming a strong partnership that should overwhelm United, while the long-ball distribution of the Spurs centre-backs to the advancing wing-backs will be unchallenged; United just do not apply pressure to the ball.
Chelsea v Newcastle
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
The uncertainty within Chelsea at the moment is bound to rock the players, and Newcastle United are exactly the sort of side to take advantage of that. Eddie Howe’s team will start in a low block and prioritise using spaces on the counter-attack, as they have done superbly recently, which should mean Chelsea are slowed into aimless possession.
Ryan Fraser can expect to get in behind the high Chelsea line, enacting the breaks that have defined the Magpies’ recent wins against Brighton and Southampton – in which they held 36% and 34% possession respectively. This success will be predicated on aggression through central midfield, where Joe Willock and Joelinton can win their battles to nick the ball and launch those counters.
Thomas Tuchel’s two-man midfield can be man-marked in open play by Willock and Joelinton, who will then be assisted by Jonjoe Shelvey in pinging balls forward for Fraser and the returning Allan Saint-Maximin. With so many distractions, a high-flying and feather-ruffling Newcastle is the worst possible opponent for Chelsea.
Crystal Palace v Man City
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Crystal Palace are Man City’s bogey team, and their 2-0 win at the Etihad earlier this season seemed to confirm a psychological advantage; Pep Guardiola’s team were strangely flat on the ball, falling into the trap as they struggled to move quickly enough to pull the deep defensive shell out of shape. There is certainly the chance exactly the same thing will happen on Monday night.
Patrick Vieira will take encouragement from how Everton managed to hold tight against Man City, only to concede from the sort of defensive error Palace are not prone to. Conor Gallagher is the key man in progressing Palace up the pitch, while Wilfried Zaha’s battle with Kyle Walker will be definitive.
It’s a long shot, but there have been many signs this season that Man City lack a striker for games like these. Vieira’s side may well keep a clean sheet.
Source: Betfair Premier League
