Brentford v Burnley: Bees can keep winning buzz going

“The Bees have needed to score two or more to secure 10 of their 14 home points, which angles towards over 2.5 goals as a decent bet if there is to be a home win.” Recommended Bet Back Brentford win with over 2.5 goals at 4.1

Crucial basement clash

Brentford gave themselves some breathing space with last week’s 3-1 win at bottom club Norwich, which kept them in 15th place but moved them on to 27 points.

This is another crucial basement clash, with visitors Burnley occupying the last relegation spot on 21 points.

Thomas Frank’s hosts have played more matches than all the teams below them, so it is important they maintain a significant buffer as they go into their last 10 games of the season.

As well as three points for Brentford, one of the bright spots at Norwich was a first appearance for Christian Eriksen in the starting line-up. With a week between games, he is expected to keep his place.

Frank may well have to make changes after Christian Norgaard and Kristoffer Ajer went off injured in the second half at Norwich. Mads Roerslev and Frank Onyeka are the likely replacements if needed.

Josh Dasilva is still suspended.

Clarets could move out of drop zone

Burnley’s sudden rush of winning form has been halted by defeats at home to Leicester (2-0) and Chelsea (4-0) in their last two games but they are only a point from safety.

Even a draw here would move Sean Dyche’s side out of the relegation zone above Everton, who do not play until Sunday.

The Clarets have missed key defender Ben Mee, who was substituted in the first half against Leicester with the game still goalless and then sat out the Chelsea match. He could be ready to return here.

Maxwel Cornet could be brought into the starting line-up alongside Wout Weghorst in attack.

Brentford’s victory at Norwich snapped an eight-match winless run and this is a good chance to keep the momentum going against another relegation-threatened side.

The Bees’ last two games of the season are against Everton and Leeds and they will be keen to avoid their survival coming down to nervy encounters at the very end.

Ivan Toney’s first start in a month made the difference at Norwich as he scored a hat-trick to take his league total to nine goals.

Brentford had scored only one goal in four games during his absence from the starting line-up, whereas Toney has now found the net in his last four starts.

Brentford need to improve their home form, which has become increasingly shaky mainly because of a lack of clean sheets. Their home losses (eight) is the highest in the Premier League bar Norwich and Watford.

After beating Brentford 3-1 in the reverse fixture at Turf Moor on October 30, Burnley went 11 Premier League matches without a win and seemed doomed until a dramatic revival with a 3-0 victory at Brighton on February 19.

That was quickly followed by a 1-0 home win over Tottenham and a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace, but then came the setbacks at home to Leicester and Chelsea.

Burnley have remained fairly solid for most of the season, however, as shown by a joint-high of 12 draws and their 11 defeats, which is the lowest among the bottom six.

Six of the 11 losses have been against current top-six teams, which is a further indication of their solidity against most of the division.

With only one win in 13 away trips, however, it is difficult to make a strong case for a Burnley win at 3.9.

The more likely winners are Brentford with the extra quality provided by Toney and Eriksen. Odds of 2.245/4 for the home win look more than fair.

Both teams rank low for average goals per game but the Bees have needed to score two or more to secure 10 of their 14 home points, which angles towards over 2.5 goals as a decent bet if there is to be a home win.

Despite Burnley’s reputation as a good defensive unit, it is worth noting that they have conceded at least twice in more than half of their away games (seven out of 13), although the incidence has been dropping (two of the last seven).

For a bet at juicier odds, it is worth trying a Brentford win with over 2.5 goals at 4.1.