Brighton v Liverpool: Back Diaz to down Seagulls

It’s four defeats in a row with just one goal scored for Graham Potter’s Brighton, who have really hit a wall after a promising start and seem destined for a lower half finish without too much threat of a relegation scrap.

Their home form has been particularly poor with just three Premier League wins all season at the Amex and just one victory in their last 10.

The Seagulls haven’t beaten Liverpool at home since they returned to the Premier League but did have an eye-catching display at Anfield in the reverse fixture, coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2.

Draws have been the story of the season for Brighton with a league-high 12 so far, but it’s scoring goals where they’ve really struggled as they’ve bagged just 10 at home all season and drawn a blank in four of seven at home.

Reds roll on despite defeat

Liverpool’s 15-game winning run ended in the Champions League during the week, but they still qualified for the quarter-finals and had plenty of possession and chances against Italian champions Inter.

Jurgen Klopp’s side are still fighting on three fronts but games are coming thick and fast now and Brighton could be a big banana skin as the Reds haven’t beaten them in the last three meetings.

The Reds have won seven league games in a row though, scoring 19 and keeping five clean sheets and conceding just twice, so could hardly be in better form.

West Ham pushed them all the way before that defeat against Inter so there’s just a hint of them labouring a bit, in particularly in putting away their chances and being a bit more clinical.

Liverpool are the league’s top scorers on the road and having scored two or more in 10 of 13 away games so far, they’ll hope to add another two to see them follow Man Utd as just the second team to score 2,000 Premier League goals.

Can Brighton bag a goal?

Only Leicester have stopped Liverpool scoring in a Premier League away game this season, while Brighton have kept just three clean sheets in their last 10 at home.

On the flip side Brighton have only scored in five of those 10 games and you fancy here they’ll need at least a goal to have any chance of getting something from the game.

The Seagulls are big 7.06/1 outsiders with Liverpool 1.548/15 and the draw priced up at 4.77/2 and shouldn’t be ignored given how much the home side love a stalemate.

Liverpool have had games coming thick and fast and have actually failed to score in two of their last four having played the Carabao Cup final, an FA Cup tie, league game and Champions League game all in the space of 10 days.

An extra day off having played Inter on Tuesday could make the difference even if Klopp isn’t a fan of the early Saturday kick-offs. If Brighton play like they did at Anfield we’ll have an open game and that’ll play right into Liverpool’s hands.

Liverpool to win and both teams to score looks the play at 3.185/40.

Diaz the real deal

It’s now three games without a goal for Mohamed Salah which is approaching drought status for the Egyptian, who has 19 league goals and 10 assists in yet another prolific season.

Salah has usually profited against Brighton having scored five and assisted five in his nine league games against the Seagulls – averaging a goal involvement every 75 minutes.

Salah is odds-on to score and 3.185/40 for an assist, and while Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane haven’t looked at full steam recently, new signing Luis Diaz has been an instant hit.

“He’s got everything!”

Former Liverpool forward John Aldridge has been impressed with Luis Diaz’s impact since joining the club, and believes there’s more to come from the Colombian pic.twitter.com/Jk34urZVvj

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) March 2, 2022

The Colombian offers something different with his ball carrying, completing more dribbles than any other player in the team, and creating more chances than any other Liverpool player bar Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Diaz was only a late sub against Inter, and should have scored, so he’ll be fresh to run at Brighton and cause real problems. He’s already had multiple shots on target in a couple of Liverpool games and can do so again here.

He could also get his first Liverpool league goal at 2.757/4 as he’s been knocking on the door in the last few games.