West Ham have been excellent in the Europa League, and while Kevin Hatchard isn’t sure if they’ll avoid defeat against Sevilla, he does think they’ll at least score.
“Sevilla have scored in every home match this season, and while West Ham have looked jaded recently, they have scored at least once in 13 of their last 15 competitive games.”
Sevilla v West Ham
Thursday 10 March, 17:45
Live on BT Sport
Sevilla’s UEL love affair rekindled
Having won the Europa League six times in the 21st century, Sevilla could have their greatest ever triumph in the competition this year, as the final will be staged at their Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan stadium. With their La Liga title hopes fading fast, it may well be that coach Julen Lopetegui starts to prioritise this competition.
The weekend’s goalless draw at Alaves, coupled with Real Madrid’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad, means that Sevilla are now eight points off top spot in the league, but they have a healthy nine-point lead over old foes Betis in the race for the Champions League. Sevilla’s title push has drowned in draws – they have seen five of their last seven top-flight matches end level.
Sevilla are incredibly tough to beat at home. French champions Lille are the only visiting side to win at the Sanchez Pizjuan this season, and Sevilla have won 12 of their 16 competitive home matches this term, including seven of their last nine.
On-loan Manchester United forward Anthony Martial is a doubt for this one because of injury, while midfielder Thomas Delaney is suspended. The first-choice defensive pairing of Diego Carlos and Jules Kounde were retained in the winter transfer window, and Sevilla haven’t conceded more than once in a game since January.
Hammers still have shot at glory
With the Premier League campaign running out of steam, the Europa League is not only a chance for West Ham to push for a rare trophy, but it might also be their best opportunity to qualify for the Champions League. Saturday’s 1-0 defeat at Anfield, a match that saw the East London giants pass up two excellent chances in the second half, means that David Moyes’ side has now collected just eight points from their last seven matches.
It’s hard to get away from the notion that West Ham missed a big opportunity to strengthen their squad in the winter window, and their half-hearted and belated efforts (they reportedly made an unrealistic push for Benfica’s Darwin Nunez in the closing hours of the window) are even more bizarre when you consider how seriously they have taken this competition.
From the get-go, Moyes has selected strong line-ups in this competition, and West Ham won their group with a game to spare.
On that basis alone, they were always going to need cover for attacking workhorse Michail Antonio, who has already made 38 appearances for club and country. The goals have dried up for the Jamaican international – he has scored in just one of his last ten appearances. West Ham haven’t scored more than once in a game since mid-February, and they have netted just eight goals across their last eight competitive matches.
Jarrod Bowen picked up a knock at the weekend, and it’s not yet known if he’ll be fit to start. Declan Rice missed the trip to Anfield with illness, but is part of the squad. Moyes couldn’t confirm the England international would start in his press conference.
Sevilla fair favourites, but not impregnable
Despite Sevilla’s recent glut of draws, they are fair favourites here at 2.1411/10 in the Match Odds market. Lopetegui’s side has an excellent home record, including wins over Atletico Madrid, Wolfsburg, Betis and Villarreal.
However, if you’re looking for a reason to support West Ham here, it’s worth noting that Sevilla’s home form in the Champions League this season was poor. They were beaten by Lille, drew with Salzburg and beat a Wolfsburg team that has been well below its best this term.
Hammers can score
Although West Ham aren’t exactly producing a firework show in every game at the moment, they do usually find the net at least once. Moyes’ men have scored in 13 of their last 15 competitive matches, including six of the last eight away games.
Sevilla have played four home games in European competition this term, and have only kept one clean sheet, and they gave up plenty of chances in that draw at Alaves at the weekend.
Both Teams To Score is trading at evens here, and I think that’s overpriced. Sevilla have scored in every home match this season, so in my eyes you’re effectively getting a pay-out at evens on West Ham to score a goal.
Lump on Lucas
Lucas Ocampos is Sevilla’s man for the big occasion, and I’m surprised to see him priced at 3.613/5 on the Sportsbook to score at any time. He scored in the first leg of the previous round against Dinamo Zagreb, and he tends to show up when Sevilla really need him to shine. Don’t be put off by the fact he only has eight competitive goals this season.
Keep an eye on the team news, but if he starts, Jarrod Bowen is always worth considering at 4.57/2. The former Hull City forward has scored in six of his last 11 games, and he has 12 goals overall.
Source: Betfair Europa League
