Alex Keble looks ahead to the four midweek Champions League matches, predicting Liverpool and Man City will easily progress through to the quarter-finals…
“In another open contest, Ivan Perisic can again excel on the left. His directness and trickery on that wing caused numerous problems for Liverpool.”
Liverpool v Inter Milan
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Inter Milan were perhaps unlucky to lose by two goals in the first leg at the San Siro, a game that was far more entertaining than anticipated as Simone Inzaghi’s side poured men forward on the counter-attack, hitting Liverpool as hard as they could with direct balls over the top of the defence. It is a tactical pattern that should be repeated at Anfield.
In another open contest, Ivan Perisic can again excel on the left. His directness and trickery on that wing caused numerous problems for Liverpool, partly because Mohamed Salah is rarely back helping and partly because Trent Alexander-Arnold remains vulnerable when defending one-on-one. It seems likely that Inter will get a bit more luck this team, with Perisic creating a goal for the visitors.
But Liverpool ought to still win comfortably. The brilliance of the Liverpool front three has gone up a notch since Luis Diaz joined the club and, with all three players dropping between the lines, there is little chance an attack-minded Inter midfield can successfully track them.
Bayern Munich v RB Salzburg
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Red Bull Sazburg have probably already missed their chance. That late equaliser from Kingsley Coman, in a half dominated by Bayern Munich, was a crushing blow and back in Germany Julien Nagelsmann’s side will probably pull away. However, there is the slightest hope that another repeat of the tactical performance at the Red Bull Arena will pull off a shock.
To do that, Matthias Jaissle’s 4-3-1-2 needs to once again sit back, stay narrow, and hope to block all the routes to goal. The midfield diamond was very effective in pushing Bayern into the wide areas where they didn’t want to play, reducing Juilen Nagelsmann’s possession-centric football into something too slow to break through. That happens a lot under his management, and did again in a 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend.
However, a formation change should make the difference. Nagelsmann strangely moved to a 3-2-4-1 formation for the first leg, meaning far too many bodies crammed into those congested central areas. Bayern should move back to a simpler 4-2-3-1, providing greater balance and the platform for a relatively comfortable home win.
Real Madrid v PSG
Wednesdays, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Real Madrid were pulled apart in the first leg by Kylian Mbappe and were very lucky to only lose by a single goal. Carlo Ancelotti has never been one for the tactical minutaie and indeed his Real Madrid team were typical of the Italian in the Champions League; too passive and individualistic to cope with such a talented opposition. Paris Saint-Germain were able to hold 57% possession and outshoot their opponents 21 to 3.
Mauricio Pochettino may actually prefer the tactical battle of the second leg despite the roles being flipped. At the Bernabeu, Real Madrid will anticipate holding a lot more of the ball and will be expected to take the game to the visitors, allowing PSG sit in deep banks of four and then cut through this passive and ageing Real midfield on the counter-attack.
That was the method Pochettino used to get to the final last year, and it was surprising to see his team take greater control of the ball in the first leg of this tie. In a more familiar pattern, Mbappe can wreak even more havoc from that left flank.
Man City v Sporting
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
There isn’t much to say about this game. Sporting did not give a good account of themselves in the first leg, neither dropping deep enough to block the penalty area nor pressing higher as a unit, allowing Man City to ease through the first leg playing their natural game. The second should follow the same rhythms, although probably with fewer goals as Pep Guardiola rotates the team.
Jack Grealish put in a strong performance against Manchester United and may keep his place in order to build some confidence, which is worth keeping an eye on. Raheem Sterling terrorised Sporting on the left flank in the first leg, amassing a goal and an assist thanks to close support from Joao Cancelo. Grealish, off the leash given City’s five-goal advantage, should be able to at least replicate that.
Source: Betfair Champions League
