Friday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Championship and more

“Nottingham Forest 4.003/1 sit second in the Championship based on results since Steve Cooper took charge (W13-D8-L4). Three of the four defeats have come against top-eight rivals with the Reds returning W4-D5-L7 when facing top-half teams across the whole campaign.”

1860 Munich v Verl
18:00

First up we’re heading to Germany, because Kevin Hatchard thinks he’s found us some Friday night fun.

Kevin says: “1860 have long existed in the shadow of might neighbours Bayern Munich, and they have flirted with financial disaster from time to time. However, they are still in with a shot of winning promotion this season, as they are five points off the top three with ten matches left. Interestingly for our purposes tonight, they have the worst defensive record in the top nine, with 38 goals leaked and just six clean sheets in 28 matches.

“Verl surprised many by finishing seventh in the league last term, but they have sunk back into trouble this time around. They are fourth from bottom, two points from safety. With 50 goals leaked, they have the second-worst defensive record in the league, but they have scored 37 times. That goal tally is the joint-highest in the bottom half of the table.”

Kevin’s bet: Back BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at 1.94

Arminia Bielefeld 2.68/5 v Augsburg3.052/1, the Draw 3.3512/5
19:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

It’s gameweek 25 in Germany’s top flight and it’s getting underway with a clash betwen two well-matched teams…

Tom Victor says: “SchücoArena plays host to a proper six-pointer on Friday night, with Augsburg sitting one place above the relegation play-off spot and Arminia one spot above them.

“Infogol’s model gives both teams an equal chance of victory, and their respective xGA totals – among the worst in the entire Bundesliga suggests neither can be especially hopeful of keeping a clean sheet on Friday night.”

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over

Tom’s bet: Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1 or 1-2 @ 12.50

Sheffield Utd 2.0421/20 v Notts Forest 4.3100/30, the Draw 3.45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Friday night football comes from Brammall Lane as play-off chasing pair Sheffield united and Nottingham Forest lock horns.

Mark O’Haire says: “Sheffield United have tabled only five victories from their last 21 league match-ups against Nottingham Forest with the draw paying-out on 10 occasions since 2001/02. But the Blades have enjoyed slight supremacy in their Bramall Lane battles, losing just once in their nine encounters during that same sample (W3-D5-L1) with the stalemate again prevalent.

“Sheffield United 2.0811/10 are one of the form teams in the second-tier right now with the Blades bagging top honours in 10 of their last 16 Championship contests, including five of their last six at Bramall Lane (W5-D1-L0). Paul Heckingbottom’s charges have silenced 11 of their past league 16 opponents and haven’t conceded a home goal since October.

“Nottingham Forest 4.003/1 sit second in the Championship based on results since Steve Cooper took charge (W13-D8-L4). Three of the four defeats have come against top-eight rivals with the Reds returning W4-D5-L7 when facing top-half teams across the whole campaign. The guests have W7-D5-L4 on their travels, leaking just 13 away goals.”

Mark’s bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 in Sheffield United v Nottingham Forest

Inter 1.192/11 v Salernitana 23.022/1, the Draw 8.615/2
19:45
Live on BT Sport 2

The Serie A champions get this week’s round of fixtures under way at home to the division’s bottom club.

Chloe Beresford says: “After being held scoreless in their last four outings, Inter will be glad to welcome Serie A’s worst defence to San Siro on Friday evening. Salernitana sit rock bottom of the division, but have managed a draw in each of their last four games, a streak which includes a 2-2 stalemate with Milan. The Infogol model gives the visitors just a 5% chance of victory.

BTTS?No
Over/Under 2.5?Under

Chloe’s bet:

Back Inter to win 2-0 @ 6.0

Alavés 4.94/1 v Sevilla [1.97, the Draw 3.412/5
20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

The Spanish top flight starts La Liga game week 27 at Alaves when the title contenders come to town.

Tom Victor says: “After an impressive derby display last weekend, Sevilla can ramp up the pressure on league leaders Real Madrid by at least temporarily reducing the gap to three points.

“Opponents Sevilla haven’t been the worst at home, with a 1.26 xGA average suggesting this won’t be a walkover, but Infogol’s model still backs Julen Lopetegui’s visitors to get the job done at Mendizorrotza.”

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under

Tom’s bet: Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2

Paul Higham also looks at the match in Spain’s top flight for his Friday bet.

Paul says: “It’s second against second bottom and the visitors will fancy the win that will move them to within three points of leaders Real Madrid.

“Three draws in five has seen Sevilla slip-up in recent weeks, but they should have enough to beat Alaves, even though they’ve lost just one of the last five on home turf.

“Only three teams have seen fewer yellow cards than Alaves this season with just 58, but they do have a player with more bookings than most in Ruben Duarte.

“The 26-year-old defender really gets stuck in but has paid the price with nine yellows and a red in La Liga this season.“

Paul’s bet: Back Ruben Duarte & Marcos Acuna to be carded with Bet Builder @ 7.8