Aston Villa v Southampton: Backing Saints and goals on the menu for Saturday

Villa boosted by much-needed Brighton win

Aston Villa produced a much-needed victory last Saturday at Brighton to address a run of four without a win thanks to goals from Matty Cash and Ollie Watkins, and to some extent it might have assuaged one or two lingering fears of getting sucked into the relegation battle. A price of 110.0109/1 now in the Relegation market tells you its own story now, but I dare say it might have crossed the mind of a supporter or two.

Indeed, their away form of late has been superior to their efforts at Villa Park with three victories in five on the road compared to just one in five at home. Granted, they have faced Chelsea and Manchester United at home, but the recent 0-1 loss to Watford strikes a cautionary note.

Ezri Konsa’s return at the Amex shored up the defence, and the figures from an xA point of view bore that out with just 0.63 against them, which was a huge improvement on the Watford defeat as they had allowed an xA of 1.82. Boss Steven Gerrard felt compelled to change the formation from a 4-3-3 to 4-3-1-2, which placed Philippe Coutinho in his favoured No10 role behind Watkins and Danny Ings.

There’s a sense Gerrard is still searching for his best formation, and with the Birmingham Mail pointing out in the lead-up to this game, could the hosts switch again knowing they’ll be facing a back-four rather than three?

Emi Buendia was dropped last weekend for the first time in 10 matches, with Gerrard sacrificing two No10s and said: “I think Coutinho’s performance justified my decision to play Phil. I thought he was outstanding, not just with the ball but out of it. He was really selfless for the team.”

There’s a lack of keeping possession in the midfield, and it will be interesting to see if 18-year-old Tim Iroegbunam gets a start before the season is out. He came off the bench for his Villa PL debut at Brighton and never gave the ball away. He’s a classic No6, and could be what Gerrard is after.

Hasenhuttl continues to impress

It keeps getting better and better on the south coast, as the Saints are not only making progress in the Premier League table, but a much-weakened team (nine changes) was strong enough to beat West Ham in the midweek FA Cup tie 3-1. They are now one win away from Wembley and a second consecutive appearance in an FA Cup semi-final, and it came against a near-full strength Hammers team.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has been nominated for Manager Of The Month too, to go alongside the Manchester United link and also a run for an outside chance of European qualification and a top six spot. “Hass” has to beat these questions down at press conferences, but it’s a good problem to have. It’s now one defeat in 10 for Saints, and they are fast becoming one of the more reliable betting propositions at the moment.

Hasenhuttl has been steadfast with his 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 system with aggressive wing-back play from Kyle Walker-Peters and Tino Livramento, and even with the latter out, players have been able to fill in with ease.

I highlighted recently in one of my match previews how impressed I’ve been with their defence – especially at St Mary’s where they have conceded just 10 goals. They have some depth too, and the manager was quick to highlight this in his press conference in relation to Saturday’s opponent by saying: “They have financial strength and are investing more than us. They took our best striker for a lot of money last summer. But it’s not just about how much you spend but also how you spend it. We made good investment and have a young, hungry and very balanced squad.”

Southampton are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W3 D2), winning both of their last two by a 2-0 scoreline. Saints last won three consecutive league games without conceding in January 2016.

Southampton shade the head-to-head historically 16 to 14 and were 1-0 winners at St Mary’s earlier in the season thanks to Adam Armstrong’s goal and my gut feeling here is that Villa look a little short at 2.447/5, not by much, but such is the form of Southampton at the moment, surely the 3.1511/5 looks too big?

Tottenham, Everton and Norwich have been beaten lately, with Spurs in particular being blown away in north London with three goals and 10 shots on target and a domination of the corner count. They also looked the superior side at Old Trafford in the 1-1 against Manchester United.

Villa’s midfield worries me, and this is where Southampton’s strength lies with Oriol Romeu combining so well with James Ward-Prowse. The hosts have scored in every one of their last 13 matches and only Liverpool (6) and Wolves (5) have won more Premier League games in 2022 than Southampton (4). They’ve also clocked up some good xG figures in their last two games with a 3.09 xG against Norwich and a 2.73 against Everton.

The bigger price of the two of course can throw up the trade with an early goal, but if it’s close with a 0-0 going to half-time, the price won’t alter too much as the draw will shorten.

Saints can hit the scoresheet again

Southampton have scored in each of their last 10 Premier League games, with only league leaders Manchester City on a longer current run in the competition (17), a fairly impressive stat to go into Saturday’s game. The Both Teams To Score layers were clearly on alert on Friday morning as the price was no more than 1.715/7 to back – which is a little too short to get involved with.

There is the option of the Over 2.5 Goals as Villa have conceded just as many at home as they have scored (20). That trades at 1.875/6, which is fair, and certainly a lot more enticing than the Aston Villa To Keep A Clean Sheet ‘No’ bet at 1.364/11.

The vistors have won six of their last eight Premier League games against Villa (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 25 against them in the competition (D6 L13), and I am tempted to play on the Sportsbook Betbuilder here with a Saints win and BTTS. The double pays out 4.93.

We’ve had a bit of joy in laying the perceived number one striker and shortest in the betting for the To Score market, as Michail Antonio was another to join our list in failing to find the net. We usually look for a price of around 2.26/5 to 2.77/4. This is trickier as goals can be expected from two high-quality players in midfield, and I am not in a rush to lay either Coutinho or Ward-Prowse.

The latter has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League games against Aston Villa (2 goals, 3 assists), scoring twice and assisting another in Saints’ 4-3 victory in this exact fixture last season. He can be backed at 10/3 Anytime Scorer, with the Brazilian maestro at 11/4 in the same market. I wouldn’t put anyone off having those two bets. Danny Ings has scored five goals in his last seven Premier League games against sides he’s previously played for in the competition and is the shortest price of all at 17/10.

I think Gerrard will approach this game with a bit of caution, so a tight first 45 minutes could be anticipated. For that reason I like the Draw/Southampton bet at 6/1 on the Sportsbook