Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the Champions League race tightens up…
“RheinEnergieStadion is the location for a big game in the European chase, with Hoffenheim given a slight edge by Infogol to win their fourth game in a row and pull clear of Köln.”
Arminia v Augsburg too close to call
Arminia Bielefeld v Augsburg
Friday, 19:30
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SchücoArena plays host to a proper six-pointer on Friday night, with Augsburg sitting one place above the relegation play-off spot and Arminia one spot above them. Infogol’s model gives both teams an equal chance of victory, and their respective xGA totals – among the worst in the entire Bundesliga suggests neither can be especially hopeful of keeping a clean sheet on Friday night.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1 or 1-2 @ 12.50
Bayern to win third on the trot
Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern’s chance creation has continued at its high level of late, bringing victories in their last two league games, and Julian Nagelsmann’s side will want to sign off with another victory before a big Champions League test. It might not be easy for them against a Leverkusen side averaging 1.78 xGF per game this term, but Infogol still backs the champions to overpower Gerardo Seoane’s men.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.0010/1
Bochum to move closer to safety
Bochum v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
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The six-point gap to the bottom three is still a bit too close for comfort for Bochum, who were unlucky to lose to RB Leipzig last time out, but Thomas Reis’ team can put a solid home record to good use against opponents still yet to win on the road. Fürth’s 2.29 xGA average away from home goes some way to explaining their dismal record, and they can expect to end up empty-handed once more.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Hertha’s worrying slide to continue
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
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Hertha barely put up a fight at Freiburg last time out, but the one consolation this weekend is that visitors Eintracht Frankfurt are also coming off a run of defeats. Oliver Glasner’s side have averaged 0.91 xGF per game across their last three without getting themselves on the scoresheet even once, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect three to become four when they visit the Olympiastadion.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Leipzig to steal a march in top four chase
RB Leipzig v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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RB Leipzig’s Europa League bye won’t hurt as they prepare to host Freiburg, but they’ll feel they should have had enough in their favour even without the added bonus. The visitors are among the league’s best travellers, but Domenico Tedesco’s side are averaging 2.31 xGF at home this season and coming into the game off the back of three straight road victories of their own.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 13.50
Wolfsburg to take another step towards safety
Wolfsburg v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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After a nervy few weeks, Wolfsburg have a chance to firmly cement their position in mid-table and put relegation worries to bed. Seven points from the last four games haven’t been accompanied by the best of xG returns, but Infogol still expects Florian Kohfeldt’s side to do the business against opponents who they beat 3-0 in the corresponding fixture last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Gladbach to compound Stuttgart’s woes
Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30
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An average of 2.35 xGA from Stuttgart’s last three games has left the relegation-threatened side in 17th with just two points from their last seven outings. Visitors Gladbach are averaging a worrying 1.78 xGA themselves when we look at the season-long numbers, and neither side can be too confident of keeping the other at bay, but the numbers point to an away win in what probably counts as a six-pointer.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Dortmund to bring back winning feeling
Mainz v Borussia Dortmund
Sunday, 14:30
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Another defeat for Mainz this weekend might make their fans feel Champions League qualification is no longer a possibility, and they won’t have things easy against Dortmund. The visitors are coming off successive draws which saw them eliminated from Europe and knocked back in their fading title pursuit, but Infogol’s model still backs Marco Rose’s side to take the points at Mewa Arena.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Hoffenheim to go four for four
Köln v Hoffenheim
Sunday, 16:30
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RheinEnergieStadion is the location for a big game in the European chase, with Hoffenheim given a slight edge by Infogol to win their fourth game in a row and pull clear of Köln. Sebastian Hoeneß’s side are one of three locked together on 40 points, and victory over opponents four points below them can mark the visitors out as very serious contenders for Champions League football.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Source: BetFair Tips
