Dan Fitch is backing Burnley to move out of the bottom three when they host a Leicester team that remain vulnerable.
Markets favour Burnley to stay up
Burnley may remain in the relegation zone, but they are one of the most in-form teams in the Premier League.
They have only lost one of their last seven league games (W2 D4). Their only loss was a narrow 1-0 defeat against Liverpool, while this run has also seen them claim draws against Arsenal and Manchester United, and beat Spurs.
Suddenly a team that had been written off, are now favoured to escape the drop. A point in this game would see Burnley climb out of the bottom three. Sean Dyche’s team are now the fourth favourites to be relegated at 2.915/8, with Leeds having dropped below them in the betting at 2.829/5.
Dyche continues to work miracles. If the consensus was that this would be the end of their six-year spell in the Premier League, it was down to the lack of quality in the squad, rather than the manager’s abilities. Dyche will be without the injured Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Matej Vydra for this game, while Erik Pieters is a doubt, after going off in the 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace at the weekend.
Leicester continue to concede
While Burnley have found some form, Leicester are looking to rediscover theirs.
The Foxes come into this match, searching for their first Premier League win after five games (D2 L3). Their away form has been particularly poor, with Leicester failing to win any of their most recent six Premier League games on the road, losing each of the last four (D2).
It’s not particularly complicated to see why they’re struggling. Leicester have only kept four clean sheets in 36 games across all competitions this season. That has been in large part due to injuries in defence, particularly at centre-back. Leicester tried and failed to bring in another centre-half during the January window.
Both Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana are both long-term casualties, though the latter is at least back in training. Also unavailable to Brendan Rodgers are the injured Justin James, Ryan Bertrand and Timothy Castagne. The good news for Rodgers is that Jamie Vardy is back in the squad.
Burnley difficult to beat at home
Leicester are the favourites at 2.68/5, with Burnley at 3.052/1 and the draw at 3.45.
Though Leicester have the superior talent, when it comes to form, it’s clear where the value lies. Even in their bleaker months towards the start of the season, Burnley have been difficult to beat at home. They’ve only lost three of their 11 games in the Premier League (W2 D6), with those losses coming against Brighton, Arsenal and Liverpool.
The number of drawn games suggests that another stalemate is excellent value at 3.45. Alternative bets include Burnley to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 1.625/8, or the 2.166/5 for Burnley in the Draw No Bet market.
Burnley more dangerous following striker signing
Both teams to score has landed in eight of Leicester’s last nine games and is available at 1.768/11. Burnley have scored five goals across their last three games and have generally looked more dangerous since Wout Weghorst joined the club.
Weghorst has scored once and assisted twice following his January transfer. The Dutch striker is 2.8815/8 to score and 6.511/2 to assist, with the latter being a bet worth considering.
Source: BetFair Tips
