Premier League xG Stats Review: Sensational Liverpool, worries for Wolves

“Leeds’ display against Liverpool now means that Leeds are statistically the worst defensive team in the league this season, overtaking bottom side Norwich.”

Quality over quantity for Reds

Last week in this column, we discussed the record-breaking pace in which Liverpool’s attack is currently running at, and since then they have played twice and racked up a further 8.70 xGF…

That means that in total, Jurgen Klopp’s side are averaging 2.80 xGF per game this season, which would be a new Infogol record should they maintain that level, while at home they have moved into unchartered territory by averaging over 3.0 xGF per home game! That is insane.

It is hard to put into words just how ground-breaking that is, particularly in the Premier League, and the success they are having is coming thanks to a quality over quantity approach.

If we look at Liverpool’s regular play shots per game versus their xG per shot since 2014, we see that the Reds’ shot totals are trending downwards, while the xG per shot is on the up.

They averaged just over 0.08 xG per shot in 2014, and that has now increased to 0.13, meaning every attempt they take on goal has, on average, a 5% greater chance of being scored.

That is a huge difference for a team who take on average 420 regular play shots per season, an increase of 21.0 xGF per season from 2014 v 2021 by just taking better quality shots.

Liverpool are arguably the most well-run football club in the land, they spend within their means while competing on all fronts, and it is these kinds of edges that seem small but have a huge impact on the bigger picture.

Bees are ready to sting

Brentford are currently one of the most out of form teams in the Premier League, losing six of a winless seven, a run tha has seen them slip towards the relegation zone.

Firstly, Thomas Frank’s side have gone through a tough schedule, with five of their six defeats coming against teams currently in the top seven, they aren’t going to play top opponents every week.

Secondly, the Bees have been excellent at home without getting their just rewards, and it is only a matter of time before they get another win in front of their own fans.

As I mentioned on this weeks Football…Only Bettor, only five teams have a better xG process when playing at home than Brentford this season.

This tells us that they are doing an awful lot right when playing at the Brentford Community Stadium, out-creating their opponents, and if they continue in that manner, results will come.

Perhaps that will start this Saturday, where they host Newcastle in a huge game at the foot of the table.

Unsure of?

Jekyll and Hyde Toffees

It is still very early days for Frank Lampard at Everton, and we have seen the sublime and the horrific already.

The sublime part has come solely at Goodison Park so far where they have generated 4.99 xGF while allowing 1.52 xGA across their two home matches against Brentford (FA Cup) and Leeds.

Away from home, it has been a completely different story – basically roles reverse.

In their two away games at Newcastle and Southampton, they generated just 1.42 xGF while allowing 5.81 xGA.

It is the smallest of samples, but the early signs are that the Toffees save their best for home games, which bodes well ahead of a hosting of Manchester City.

The stats suggest they will at least be competitive against the league leaders at Goodison, but if it were at the Etihad, a walkover would be likely.

COLD trends?

Wolves set to see regression

As I touched on in Sunday’s Football…Only Bettor show, Wolves’ overperformance in defence is extremely unsustainable, and should regress towards the mean sharpish.

They have conceded 20 goals from chances equating to 35.3 xGA, a monumental overachievement, and by running a Poisson simulation (thats Poisson not Croissant Kev Hatchard) we can calculate the percentage chance of Wolves conceding ‘x’ amount of goals based on the chances they have faced.

As you can see, there is just a 0.2% chance Bruno Lage’s side would have conceded just 20 times – based on the simulation, they were twice as likely to concede exactly 50 goals (0.4%).

All of this tells us that the chances of Wolves replicating the same levels of overperformance for the remainder of the season are slim-to-none, so don’t be surprised if we start to see the Old Gold conceding more regularly – unless they do make improvements in their underlying process.

The worst defensive team in the league

Leeds were hammered 6-0 by Liverpool in midweek, another heavy defeat to one of the league’s elite after 7-0 and 5-1 losses to Manchester City and Manchester United.

The allowed a whopping 5.19 xGA in that game, their single worst defensive display since Marcelo Bielsa took charge.

Leeds only mustered 0.12 xGF, so all told, the midweek loss was the clubs worst performance as a whole since Bielsa took charge (according to xG).

That display now means that Leeds are statistically the worst defensive team in the league this season, overtaking bottom side Norwich.

Their 2.05 xGA per game is a huge increase on the 1.72 they averaged last season, which is why it is perhaps time to worry about Bielsa’s side in terms of relegation.

Perhaps then, Leeds represent a decent get-right game for Tottenham this weekend?

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