There is a big six-pointer at the bottom of the Premier League at Brentford on Saturday, and Paul Robinson is expecting Newcastle to take the points…
“They have lost seven of their 13 games in front of their own fans, and I really wouldn’t even consider backing them at the current prices.”
Nervous times for Brentford
The Bees are slowly getting sucked into a relegation battle, as they have won just one Premier League match since a 2-1 win over Watford on December 10th.
A 2-1 defeat at the Emirates was their sixth in seven outings, with the only positive being a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace.
Putting the ball in the net has been the main issue for Thomas Frank’s men, but he should at least be able to welcome back Ivan Toney and Christian Eriksen for this big six-pointer against the Magpies.
Toney has so far failed to recapture the form that saw him top the scoring charts in the Championship last year, but with Eriksen pulling the strings, he should be afforded more chances.
Magpies flying in 2022
Newcastle are going the other way that Brentford, as after a terrible 2021, they have come out firing in 2022. Eddie Howe’s side are unbeaten since the turn of the year in the league – winning three and drawing two.
They are now out of the relegation zone, and if results go their way this weekend, they could leapfrog Everton, Leeds and Brentford.
The one bit of bad news for Howe though, is that Kieran Trippier has been ruled out for most, if not all, of the remainder of the campaign.
The England full-back has been an inspirational signing, but at least the manager should have Allan Saint-Maximin back for the trip to the capital. The French forward missed the West Ham game, and his presence will give the forward line a huge boost.
Given that they have taken just one point from a possible 21 of late, I am a bit surprised that they are trading as the 2.588/5 favourites on the Betfair Exchange.
Their win percentage at home isn’t even that great this season, as it stands at just 31%. They have lost seven of their 13 games in front of their own fans, and I really wouldn’t even consider backing them at the current prices.
The visitors are next in at 3.185/40, and the two main worries for their backers is that they have recorded just one away victory all season, and Trippier is out injured.
That being said, they have only played 11 times on the road this term, compared to 12 or 13 times like most other clubs, and that victory came last month – which was followed up with a solid point at West Ham.
Draw backers might be tempted by the 3.3512/5 on offer for it to finish all square, but I just think that the visitors have all the momentum right now, and they are more than capable of winning at the Brentford Community Stadium.
The stats are heavily leaning to Under 2.5 Goals in this game, and that is the current favourite at 1.84/5 on the Exchange. Over 2.5 is available to back at 2.245/4.
The hosts haven’t scored more than once in a Premier League match since their 2-1 victory over Aston Villa on January 2nd, and in the seven games since they have netted a total of four times.
Newcastle’s improvement has been linked to their improvement in defence, and since their 4-0 defeat to Man City, they have played seven times, with all but one of them finishing with two goals or fewer.
The smart money is definitely on the Under here, but I won’t be recommending it as a single at 1.84/5. Given that I like an away win, I would much prefer to back a Correct Score of 0-1 at 10.519/2.
My Bet Builder for this game is a treble of Newcastle to Win, Under 2.5 Goals and Under 9.5 Corners at odds of just shy of 10/1.
I have already outlined the case for the first two selections, and my justification for the low corner count is that the two teams are in the bottom four when it comes to corners taken this season, with the Bees being bottom of the rankings.
Source: Betfair Premier League
