Brighton v Aston Villa: Draw specialists to deliver another south coast stalemate

“Brighton have drawn a league-high 12 matches this season including two of their last three home games.”

Brighton need response after Burnley blow

Brighton host Aston Villa this weekend with both teams needing to get back on track, after recent setbacks, but the chances of them cancelling each other out look high. Graham Potter’s side have been widely lauded this season but Brighton suffered a rare blow in a crushing 3-0 home defeat to Burnley last Saturday.

It is not often the Seagulls have failed to perform during this campaign but a forgettable showing last week resulted in only their sixth defeat in the league.

Brighton have typically been very hard to beat this season and the Burnley loss should probably be viewed as an anomaly.

Currently ninth in the table, a top half finish looks within their grasp although it is too much to expect Brighton to bridge the gap on the teams above them in the race for European qualification.

Gerrard must lift Villa after recent struggles

Aston Villa were initially lifted by the arrival of Steven Gerrard with the former Rangers manager leading the Premier League club to four wins from his first six games in charge. Philippe Coutinho’s arrival in the January window was another huge boost but the team’s form has nosedived lately.

A run of one win from their last seven league games has resulted in Villa sliding down to 12th. Their dismal 1-0 home defeat to struggling Watford on Saturday sparked increased frustration among the fans and followed on from a listless performance in the loss at Newcastle. Villa have failed to sparkle in attack during those defeats and Gerrard has demanded more from his players after a lacklustre run since the start of the calendar year.

Brighton are the 2.47/5 favourites for this weekend’s clash but there are reservations about backing Potter’s team. The hosts have only won seven games this season – one fewer than their opponents – suggesting the odds on a home victory are short enough.

Villa are priced at 3.3512/5 but there are reasons to be wary about siding with the visitors. Gerrard’s side have misfired lately and there appears to be a lack of confidence seeping through the team. Aston Villa have enough talent in their side to snap out of this run but their price does not have enough juice to warrant a bet.

The draw is the biggest price at 3.412/5 and is by far the most appealing option in this market. Brighton have drawn a league-high 12 matches this season including two of their last three home games.

The Seagulls’ lack of prolific finishing, coupled with their solid defence, always increases the likelihood of a stalemate.

More ambitious punters might want to back 1-1 at 7.06/1 with their last six draws all finishing in this scoreline.

Brighton’s limitations have been in the final third with the team mustering just 25 goals in as many games. Neal Maupay has scored nine goals but if the French forward fails to fire Brighton are short on potency in the penalty box. But Potter’s team have been solid at the back, conceding 28 goals, with many of their matches ending in low-scoring affairs.

Five of Brighton’s last six league outings have resulted in under 2.5 goals and this is unsurprisingly on offer at just 1.84/5 for this weekend’s game. Villa’s goals have dried up too with three of their last four matches featuring just one goal. Going low on goals looks a sensible strategy in a match which could lead to the teams cancelling each other out at the Amex Stadium.

Follow Simon’s bets on Twitter @watfordtipster