Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as teams aim to avoid European distractions…
“Bayer Leverkusen’s winning run ended at Mainz last time out, with Marcus Ingvartsen netting a late winner, but Gerardo Seoane’s men can recover back at BayArena.”
Hoffenheim to keep up top four push
Hoffenheim v Stuttgart
Friday, 19:30
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Only goal difference is keeping Hoffenheim out of the Champions League spots, and they have a chance to ramp up the pressure on their rivals with a win in the first match of the game week. A 1.95 xGF home average points towards victory for Sebastian Hoeneß’s side, and such a result would leave Stuttgart under even more pressure as they battle to stay in touch at the bottom.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Leverkusen to rebound from Mainz blip
Bayer Leverkusen v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayer Leverkusen’s winning run ended at Mainz last time out, with Marcus Ingvartsen netting a late winner, but Gerardo Seoane’s men can recover back at BayArena. Only two Bundesliga sides have a worse away xGF return than Arminia’s 0.97, and the visitors have only kept their heads above water by outrunning their xGA numbers in a way they might not be able to do against these opponents.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Hertha to suffer another blow
Freiburg v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Hertha’s defensive woes continued at Olympiastadion last weekend as they shipped six to RB Leipzig, and a huge improvement is needed if they want to get anything from a Freiburg side with three wins from their last five in all competitions. Tayfun Korkut’s visitors are averaging 2.01 xGA per game on the road, and the chances of them suddenly tightening up at Europa-Park Stadion look slim.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Fürth to miss another opportunity at home
Greuther Fürth v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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There was a brief period at the Allianz Arena last weekend when Greuther Fürth believed they might take a point or more, but Bayern Munich eventually rallied for a deserved victory which puts even more pressure on the bottom side as they return home. Köln aren’t the best travellers in the league, but Infogol still backs them to prevail against the team with the league’s worst home and away records.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Gladbach to triumph in bottom half battle
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Neither of these sides would have wanted to be in the bottom half in late February, but neither deserves to be a great deal higher. Infogol backs Gladbach to recover from a second 6-0 reverse of the season to get the better of a Wolfsburg side averaging 1.52 xGA away from home, completing a league double over their opponents and overtaking Florian Kohfeldt’s side in the process.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Union to grind out home win
Union Berlin v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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A third straight scoreless game saw Union’s top four hopes continue to fade away, but they can at least salvage something against a Mainz side who overtook them with a win of their own last time out. Urs Fischer’s hosts are still tough to beat at home, and Infogol’s model gives them a narrow edge in a game where both sides are expected to get on the scoresheet.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Bayern to gain revenge on Eintracht
Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 17:30
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Bayern Munich haven’t suffered successive away defeats all season, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect that to change despite Eintracht Frankfurt winning at the Allianz Arena before the turn of the year. The hosts have lost their last two without scoring, and are still waiting for their first clean sheet of 2022, so it would be no huge surprise to see the champions-elect move closer to glory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Leipzig to win third on the spin
Bochum v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 14:30
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An average of 2.15 xGF in their last four games has been enough for RB Leipzig to pick up nine points, but things won’t be simple against a Bochum side unbeaten in six and coming off a victory over Bayern Munich in their last home game. Infogol gives Domenico Tedesco’s team the upper hand, but a run of no clean sheets since January suggests both teams will get on the scoresheet.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Dortmund to go back-to-back
Augsburg v Borussia Dortmund
Sunday, 16:30
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Dortmund’s 6-0 victory over Gladbach last weekend was particularly welcome, and Marco Rose’s side still have the second-best away xGF in the Bundesliga in addition to their impressive home record. Opponents Augsburg remain in trouble, but only lost narrowly in the reverse fixture and could be in line for another close call against opponents coming off a big European test.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 8.207/1
Source: Betfair German
