Both Burnley and Tottenham picked up superb wins at the weekend, and Kevin Hatchard believes their meeting at Turf Moor could be closer than the market suggests.
“Burnley have only lost one of their last seven home games in the league, and even in that defeat to Liverpool, they made several good chances.” Lay Tottenham at 1.814/5
Weghorst leading the Clarets’ charge
Considering he was a regular scorer throughout his time at AZ in the Dutch Eredivisie and Wolfsburg in the German Bundesliga, it’s surprising that more clubs didn’t make a play for Dutch giant Wout Weghorst in the winter window. Burnley are already reaping the rewards of daring where others feared to tread – Weghorst led the line superbly in the recent draw at home with Manchester United, and the scored the opener in the weekend’s resounding 3-0 win at Brighton.
That win at the Amex was arguably Burnley’s best performance of the season, and it was only their second success of the campaign. Manager Sean Dyche believes his side have performed far better than their results suggest, but now have the firepower that can make the difference. French star Maxwel Cornet offers a threat in a range of positions (he has scored six Premier League goals), and the loss of centre-forward Chris Wood to Newcastle doesn’t seem so crippling.
However, the Expected Goals figures from Infogol don’t really match up to Dyche’s claims. Burnley should have conceded seven more goals than they actually have, and they have scored three goals fewer than the data suggests.
That said, the Lancashire side still have two games in hand on rivals Newcastle and Watford, and there is time to turn things around in their battle to beat the drop. Burnley are 1.784/5 to go down at the end of the season.
Weghorst and Cornet both limped out of the win at Brighton, but both are expected to be available to face Spurs. Matej Vydra is out with a hernia problem, while left-back Charlie Taylor continues to struggle with a foot injury.
Tottenham must use shock win as launching pad
When Riyad Mahrez stroked in a penalty to make it 2-2 between Manchester City and Tottenham in stoppage time, many people might have expected one final twist, but perhaps few of those would’ve predicted that Tottenham would claim all three points. Spurs dug incredibly deep, and new signing Dejan Kulusevski floated the perfect cross onto the head of Harry Kane. Conte went wild in celebration, as a three-match losing streak in the Premier League was snapped.
England captain Kane was involved in all three goals against the league leaders, and he has begun to look like his old self under Antonio Conte. Kane has seven goals and two assists in the Premier League, well down on his usual numbers, but his figures are moving towards respectability. Heung-Min Son continues to be an excellent foil for Kane, and the South Korean now has nine league goals and five assists.
Spurs are seven points off fourth-placed Manchester United, having played three games fewer, so there isn’t much margin for error. Tottenham do at least have good recent away form – they have won three of their last four road matches at this level, and have only lost once away from home in the Premier League since Conte took charge.
Sergio Reguilon is out after testing positive for COVID-19, while Oliver Skipp and Japhet Tanganga are expected to miss out with injury.
Spurs a touch too short
As impressive a performance as it was at the Etihad, I can’t get on board with backing Spurs in the Match Odds market at 1.834/5. Burnley have only lost one of their last seven Premier League games at Turf Moor, and they made several good chances against Liverpool in that match. In that stretch, they have held West Ham and Manchester United to draws, and I’d put Spurs in their bracket. I suspect some of that price is driven by history, because Tottenham have won nine of the last 13 meetings with the Clarets.
Weghorst and Cornet can cause Tottenham a few problems, so I’ll simply lay Spurs at 1.845/6.
Both teams can find the net
Tottenham aren’t as defensively sound as Conte would like them to be, although Eric Dier was a colossus at the Etihad on Saturday evening. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in a competitive match since New Year’s Day, a run of nine matches.
Burnley have tightened up of late, keeping three clean sheets in their last five matches, and if you go back further they have managed five in the last ten. However, against Heung-Min Son and a sparkling Kane, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them breached at some stage.
Both Teams To Score is trading at 1.981/1, and I think that’s a fair price.
Centre-forwards in focus
Wout Weghorst is starting to make a serious impact for Burnley, and if you want to back him to score in back-to-back games, he is priced at 3.412/5 in the To Score market.
Kane is 1.834/5 to score, but he is also worth considering in the Anytime Assist market at 3.613/5, given that he was in top creative form at the Etihad.
Source: BetFair Tips
