Chelsea are struggling to beat teams convincingly and Dan Fitch thinks that trend will continue against Lille, as he creates Bet Builders for Tuesday’s Champions League games.
Chelsea 1.341/3 v Lille 12.011/1; The Draw 5.59/2
Tuesday 22 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Chelsea are not playing like European champions at the moment. While they have won each of their last five games, there have been some very narrow victories and late goals needed.
The Blues needed extra time to beat both Plymouth in the FA Cup and Palmeiras in the Club World Cup final. At the weekend they looked to be heading towards a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace in the Premier League, before scoring the winner in the 89th minute.
Chelsea have not looked like the same team since their best wing-backs Reece James and Ben Chilwell got injured, with Thomas Tuchel switching to a 4-3-3 formation against Palace. The change didn’t make Chelsea any more threatening, registering only three shots on target.
Lille’s defence of their Ligue 1 title could have hardly gone worse. Currently eleventh in the French top flight, Lille have seen key players poached and also changed manager in the summer.
Yet despite their domestic struggles, Lille won their last three group games in the Champions League, to make the knockout stages. This included victories away at Sevilla and Wolfsburg.
Given Chelsea’s scoring struggles, we’re going to start our Bet Builder with under 3.5 goals at 4/11 on the Sportsbook. It’s tempting to go lower, but Lille are very inconsistent.
To that we’re going to add ‘No’ in the Goals Scored in Both Halves market, at 5/4. It’s a bet that’s landed in each of the last five Chelsea games and creates a double at odds of 2.26/5.
Juve struggling to score
Villarreal 2.568/5 v Juventus 3.259/4; The Draw 3.259/4
Tuesday 22 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Juventus continue to frustrate and they face a Villarreal side that have discovered some form as the season has gone on.
The Old Lady took an early lead at home over the weekend, in their derby match against Torino. Juve’s rivals equalised in the second-half, resulting in the second successive 1-1 draw in Serie A for Massimiliano Allegri’s team.
Those results leave Juventus in fourth place, with the likes of Atalanta and Lazio not far behind. With Juve only nine points behind the leaders Milan, the title is not out of reach, but it’s hard to imagine the side summoning the consistency needed to make it happen.
A lack of goals is a huge problem, with Juventus scoring 38 times in 26 league games this season, which is only the joint 11th best record in Serie A. Dusan Vlahovic has been bought to address this issue, but since scoring on his debut has failed to find the net in a further three games.
Villarreal could be a test for Juventus. Last season’s Europa League winners struggled in La Liga at the start of the new campaign, but have climbed the table with seven wins from their last 10 games (D2 L1).
A 4-1 win at Granada over the weekend leaves Villarreal in sixth place. Prior to that win they have beaten third placed Real Betis and held the leaders Real Madrid to a draw.
Again, under 3.5 goals seems a safe starting point, considering that one of the sides is really struggling to score. On this occasion, it’s available at 1/5.
Juventus have conceded in each of their last three games, so with Villarreal having home advantage, we’re going to add the hosts to have three or more shots on target at 2/9. Finally, we’ll add under 11.5 corners at 2/7 to make a 2.245/4 priced treble.
Source: Betfair Champions League
