Aston Villa v Watford: Villans to edge it in the second half

“Odds of around 4/1 for a halftime stalemate and a Villa victory look reasonable in what really is a trappy affair.”

Leaky Villa in need of a change in fortune

The honeymoon period Steven Gerrard enjoyed over the first month as Aston Villa boss has well and truly ended.

The Villans won four of their first six games under the new boss, losing only to the champions, Manchester City, and his old club, Liverpool, but since winning 2-0 at Norwich just before Christmas, Gerrard’s charges have won just one of seven – 1-0 away at Everton in the Toffees first game after Rafael Benitez’s dismissal.

In all competitions since Christmas, Villa have drawn two and lost four with their latest loss coming at St James’ Park on Sunday in a game neither team particularly impressed in. Newcastle edged it thanks to a Kieran Trippier freekick on the 35th minute but it wasn’t a classic and the xG was only 0.53 – 0.54.

Along with Liverpool and West Ham, Villa are one of only three teams to have scored in all 11 of their Premier League home games this season and they struck three times at home to Leeds in their penultimate game, but their defence was breached on three occasions too and they’ve now conceded 18 goals in their last eight Premier League home games, one more than they had in their previous 17 at Villa Park combined.

Add in the fact that Ollie Watkins has failed to score in each of his last six and it’s easy to see why Villa have struggled so far this year.

Woeful Watford look destined for the drop

It’s not yet ten years since the Pozzo family took control of Watford they’re now on their 15th manager. And they’re already on their third this season!

Xixco Munoz was given just six games at the helm, after he’d steered the club back to the Premier League last season, and the Pozzo’s patience ran out with his replacement, Claudio Ranieri, at the end of last month following a 3-0 home defeat to fellow strugglers, Norwich.

Ranieri’s rein lasted only 14 games but given the Hornets had lost eight of their last nine before his departure, and that they’d conceded as many as 24 goals during that spell, it wasn’t a surprise to anyone when the 70-year-old Italian was shown the door.

The Poozo’s elected for experience again replacing one septuagenarian with another but after three games under 74-year-old, Roy Hodgson, Watford have yet to find the net.

Hodgson’s reign began with a 0-0 draw at Burnley, and they only lost 1-0 away at West Ham, so he has at least stopped the bleeding at the back, but Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at home to Brighton was a disappointing result.

Watford have now scored only once in their last six Premier League matches but they do at least have Ismaila Sarr back from the AFCON Cup and after coming on at halftime last week, he should be back in the line-up from the start on Saturday.

“First thing with Sarr is, he only came back on Friday lunchtime from a long trip and was feeling very tired and I think he did remarkably well to make himself available to be on the bench,” Hodgson said on Saturday.

“But going forward, I have big expectations for him. And we as a team have expectations of what we want to see from him.”

They certainly need him to hit the ground running again though, Watford have taken just two points from their last 33 available in the Premier League and with Everton and Newcastle rallying, the Hornets are now only 1.21/5 to be relegated.

Villans to edge it in the second half

This is tricky affair between two out of form sides and nothing jumps out when looking at the side markets.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in eight of Villa’s last nine Premier League matches and five of the last six encounters between these two sides have produced at least three goals so Over 2.5 Goals at odds-against looks more than fair but we can soon counter that argument.

Villa created very little on Sunday and there have been under three goals scored in five of Watford’s last six matches.

In the scorer markets, Danny Ings, who may well replace the out of form Watkins, is an interesting option. He has a fair record against the Hornets, scoring in each of his last three Premier League games against them, netting four goals in total in that run. And his first goal for the Villans came in the reverse fixture on the opening weekend this season.

No is odds-on in the Both Teams to Score marketBoth Teams to Score market but Watford need to be more progressive and Sarr returning is a plus for the visitors. Given Villa have struck in all 11 at home this season and Watford are surely due a goal, Yes at odds-against makes more appeal. The Hornets have failed to score in each of their last four Premier league games and we have to go all the way back to 1987 to find the last occasion that they went five in-a-row without finding the net.

Villa are quite rightly the odds-on favourites in the outright market and this feels like a huge game for Gerrard. Currently the 6/4 favourite to become the next Liverpool manager after Jurgen Klopp, he needs to start turning things around here if he’s to land his dream job and three points against ex-Liverpool boss, Hodgson, would be a good start.

Villa haven’t been convincing enough to back at odds-on but I quite like Draw/Villa in the Half Time/Full Time market. The hosts have been drawing at home in six of their 11 Premier League games this season and Watford have been level in six of their 11 on the road. Odds of around 4/1 for a halftime stalemate and a Villa victory look reasonable in what really is a trappy affair.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter