Watford v Brighton: Low scoring affair expected at Vicarage Road

“Given the figures, and the improved and tighter form for Watford since the Hodgson appointment, a low scoring affair looks highly likely.”

Hornets shut up shop under Hodgson

It’s not yet ten years since the Pozzo family took control of Watford and the first thing they did, within a couple of weeks of completing the takeover, was dismiss the current Burnley manager, Sean Dyche.

Patience isn’t a virtue bestowed upon the Pozzos and they’re now on their 15th manager since dismissing the Premier League’s current longest serving boss. And they’re already on their third this season!

Xixco Munoz was given just six games at the helm, after he’d steered the club back to the Premier League last season, and the Pozzo’ patience ran out with his replacement, Claudio Ranieri, at the end of last month following a 3-0 home defeat to fellow strugglers, Norwich.

Ranieri’s rein lasted only 14 games and four months but given the Hornets had lost eight of their last nine before his departure, and that they’d conceded as many as 24 goals during that spell, it wasn’t a surprise to anyone when the 70-year-old Italian was shown the door.

The Pozzo’s elected for experience again replacing one septuagenarian with another and the 74-year-old, Roy Hodgson, has already made his mark.

The Watford defence was breached in all 14 games overseen by Ranieri but in the two games under Hodgson they’ve conceded just once. After a 0-0 draw at Dyce’s Burnley last Saturday, the Hornets lost 1-0 away at West Ham on Tuesday thanks to a second half goal by Jarrod Bowen.

That’s a decent start for Hodgson but given Watford have now scored only once in their last five Premier League matches, he now needs to work on finding the net.

Having dipped to a low of 1.292/7 to be relegated, the Hornets have lengthened fractionally since Hodgson’s appointment but they’re still in big trouble and only Norwich are trading at shorter.

Draw Specialists Brighton are tough nuts to crack

Now in their fifth season back in the top-flight, sitting in ninth place with 30 points after 22 games, the Seagulls are enjoying their best Premier League campaign since they were promoted back in 2017 and Graham Potter’s charges are proving really tough to beat. Especially on the road.

Brighton have only been beaten four times in total in the Premier League this season but they’ve lost just one of 11 away games and there were mitigating circumstances then given they bumped into Aston Villa at just the wrong time.

Villa were completely rejuvenated under brand-new boss, Steven Gerrard, when they hosted Brighton at the end of November. It was the ex-Liverpool star’s first game in charge and it’s fair to say they were up for the fight but the Seagulls still kept them out for 83 minutes, before going on to lose 0-2.

As tough as they are to beat, Potter would still want to see his side win a few more games. Incredibly, they’ve now drawn 12 of the 22 played and eight of those 12 have finished 1-1.

Each of their last three matches have ended 1-1 and four of their last five away games have finished up with that score line. The Seagulls edged out Everton 3-2 at Goodison Park back at the start of January and they beat Burnley and Brentford away at the start of the season, but they’ve now drawn seven of 11 on the road.

Low goals and a saver on 1-1 is the way to go

Brighton are favourites to win the match at a shade of odds-against and so they should be, but the value appears to sit away from the outright market.

Looking at the stats for the home team, Watford have been leaky and there have been at least three goals in five of Watford’s last six home games but Hodgson has tightened things up considerably already and those numbers can be taken with a pinch of salt.

Under 2.5 Goals is trading at around 1.674/6 but that still looks generous. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 11 of Brighton’s last 12 Premier League games and with Hodgson installing some stability in the Watford defence, it’s very difficult to envisage a goal-fest at Vicarage Road on Saturday.

Watford lost their last home league game against Brighton 3-0 in August 2019 but that’s the only time there’s been more than two goals scored in the last 11 encounters between the two sides in all competitions.

Given the figures, and the improved and tighter form for Watford since the Hodgson appointment, a low scoring affair looks highly likely.

So much so that I’m going to swerve the odds-on for Under 2.5 and back Under 1.5 at in excess of 2/1 with a saver on Brighton’s regular result of 1-1.

These two teams have a long history of producing low scoring encounters and a combination of under 1.5 goals and 1-1 would have paid out on 19 of the last 30 occasions the two have met in all competitions since the mid 1980s.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter