Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as the top-four race tightens up…
“Athletic’s four-game unbeaten run has given them an outside shot at European qualification, and a season-long average of 1.10 xGA has helped them remain tough to beat.”
Sevilla to end Elche’s unbeaten run
Sevilla v Elche
Friday, 20:00
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Sevilla fell further behind Real Madrid after dropping points last time out, but Julen Lopetegui’s side are still unbeaten in 2022. They should have too much for an Elche side in impressive form themselves, with a 3-1 victory over Alavés last time out lifting them to 14th, but still holding the league’s worst away xGA average by quite some distance despite the uptick in results.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 6.6011/2
Celta to keep Cádiz in trouble
Cádiz v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 13:00
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Cádiz are still yet to win at home in the league, with their 1.80 xGA a factor, and Infogol’s model backs their struggles to continue against Celta. Eduardo Coudet’s visitors have more points away than at home, and have lost just once in 2022, and they’re the slightly more likely victors in what could well end up being a close-run thing between sides who drew last season’s corresponding game.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 7.006/1 or 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Real Madrid to pick up points in Villarreal
Villarreal v Real Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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Villarreal’s recent form has brought them back into the top-four discussion, but a failure to keep that run going against Real Madrid could set them back. Unai Emery’s side are averaging 2.30 xGF at Estadio de la Cerámica, so a clean sheet for the visitors doesn’t seem the most achievable feat, but Carlo Ancelotti’s team have enough goals in them to get a narrow edge in one of their tougher remaining games.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.5021/2
Rayo to stay in top half with win
Rayo Vallecano v Osasuna
Saturday, 17:30
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Rayo have had a tough start in 2022, averaging just 1.15 xGF per game across a quartet of fixtures which have brought a single point, but a return to Vallecas – where they have still lost just once in the league – can bring a return to winning ways. While Osasuna come into this game off the back of successive clean sheets, Infogol’s model still backs the home side to walk away with all three points.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.008/1
Atléti to bounce back from Barça loss
Atlético Madrid v Getafe
Saturday, 20:00
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After conceding four goals from a combined 0.96 xGA at Barcelona last weekend, Atlético Madrid will want a response against a resurgent Getafe. Quique Sánchez Flores’ 0.89 xGA average across their last six games points to a tight encounter at Wanda Metropolitano, but the reigning La Liga champions are backed by Infogol’s model to have the goods in a low-scoring game.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9/2
Alavés and Valencia to cancel each other out
Alavés v Valencia
Sunday, 13:00
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Alavés remain in deep trouble after losing at Elche last weekend, but survived last season despite being bottom of the table as late as April. Losing to Valencia would be another big blow for José Luis Mendilibar’s side, who lost 3-0 in the reverse fixture, and Infogol’s model gives the two sides an equal side of victory at Mendizorrotza on Sundau.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.6011/2
Betis to cling onto third place
Levante v Real Betis
Sunday, 15:15
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Real Betis have been left with a little less margin for error in the top-four race after losing to Villarreal last weekend, but a trip to bottom-of-the-table Levante will be the kind of game they need to win to demonstrate their credentials. The hosts have been better than their 11 points from 22 games suggests, and led in the reverse fixture, but Infogol still anticipates an away win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2 or 0-2 @ 12.50
Granada to suffer fourth straight defeat
Real Sociedad v Granada
Sunday, 17:30
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Real Sociedad have averaged just 0.61 xGA per game across their last three, keeping a trio of clean sheets in the process, and Infogol expects them to be too strong for a Granada side coming off three defeats on the spin with an underwhelming xGF return of their own. Robert Moreno’s visitors still sit six points clear of the drop, but another setback at Anoeta could leave them looking over their shoulders.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 6.6011/2
Barcelona to triumph in derby
Espanyol v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona’s home win over Espanyol was Xavi’s first as manager, and the Camp Nou boss is expected to complete a league double over their neighbours. The hosts have been worryingly leaky at RCDE Stadium this term but that hasn’t harmed their results too much, though on this occasion Infogol expects Vicente Moreno’s team to fall just short.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1
Athletic to make it five unbeaten
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao
Monday, 20:00
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Athletic’s four-game unbeaten run has given them an outside shot at European qualification, and a season-long average of 1.10 xGA has helped them remain tough to beat. Opponents Mallorca won their last game against Cádiz, costing opposition manager Álvaro Cervera his job in the process, but Infogol’s model doesn’t expect Luis García’s men to achieve back-to-back wins.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
