Bundesliga Tips: Another big no-no for Rino

Ailing Stuttgart to be swept away

Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart
Saturday 12 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

For Bayer Leverkusen to truly reach the next level, they need to win games against other teams that regularly push for the top four. Their 5-2 demolition of Borussia Dortmund on Sunday at Signal Iduna Park was a sign that things might be changing under Gerardo Seoane at the BayArena. Yes, Dortmund were awful defensively and were missing the injured Erling Haaland, but they had no answer to Bayer’s speed and precision in attack.

Moussa Diaby and Florian Wirtz were both on the scoresheet, and it’s remarkable that Bayer netted five goals without Patrik Schick being amongst the scorers. Bayer have now scored 54 goals in just 21 league matches, including ten across the last two outings.

Stuttgart are suffering from a serious case of second-season syndrome, although sporting director Sven Mislintat insists that neither he nor coach Pellegrino Matarazzo will leave in the event of relegation. That pledge will be put to the test if the southern giants don’t turn things around soon – they have sunk into the automatic dropzone after a run of five defeats in six.

Even though Stuttgart have welcomed back key players after injury like Silas and Sasa Kalajdzic, there is a naivete and a fragility about them. They have leaked 38 goals and have lost 11 of their 21 games.

On current form, this is a mismatch, and we can back Bayer to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9210/11 on the Sportsbook. That seems a sensible play given that Leverkusen’s last nine Bundesliga matches have all featured at least three goals.

Nkunku can star in Friday night clash

RB Leipzig v Köln
Friday 11 February, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Although Leipzig ultimately lost last weekend’s showdown with the league leaders Bayern, the fact that they pushed the champions all the way was a sign of how far they have come under coach Domenico Tedesco. After the ill-fated reign of Tedesco’s predecessor Jesse Marsch, Leipzig’s talented squad looks comfortable with the style of play and the tactical framework.

Leipzig have won six of their last eight competitive home matches, and they face a Köln side that has been shorn of star centre-forward Anthony Modeste. The veteran Frenchman is ill, and missed the final training session before the trip from west to east. Given that Modeste has scored 14 of Köln’s 33 league goals this term, his absence is a hefty blow.

Köln’s recent form has been hit and miss, and their only win in the last four competitive matches was Saturday’s 1-0 win over Freiburg. Coach Steffen Baumgart was forced to watch the game in quarantine at home, and footage of the COVID-struck tactician ranting and raving at the TV while his dog leant on his back has gone around the world. I guess you could say Baumgart went viral twice.

Against a team that has coughed up seven goals in its last four games, Leipzig should carve out plenty of goalscoring chances, and I’ll happily back Christopher Nkunku to score at 2.6613/8. The Frenchman has been absolutely outstanding this season, scoring 10 goals in the Bundesliga and seven in the Champions League. He has found the net in three of his last five appearances.

Dortmund to fail in Köpenick again

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund
Sunday February 13, 14:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

With the doubtless dismayed Erling Haaland watching on helplessly, Borussia Dortmund’s title push imploded on Sunday, as they were shredded 5-2 at home by Bayer Leverkusen. Marco Rose’s side looked disorganised defensively, and one wonders what they actually worked on during the international break.

While BVB are still second, there is still a sense that no real progress is being made. Bad habits show no sign of being shaken off, and the maddening level of inconsistency seems out of step with the quality at Rose’s disposal. They have one of the league’s best keepers in Gregor Kobel, a sought-after centre-back in Manuel Akanji, a midfield superstar in the making in Jude Bellingham and a world-class centre-forward.

Another stern test awaits on Sunday afternoon. Dortmund have lost on both of their league visits to the Alte Försterei, and Union have only lost one of their last 26 home games in the German top flight.

Admittedly, the capital club looked flat in last weekend’s 2-0 defeat at Augsburg, and they’ll have to adjust to the loss of talismanic forward Max Kruse. However, with a crowd behind them in Köpenick, Union tend to rise to the occasion.

Dortmund aren’t guaranteed to have Haaland in attack (at time of writing he was rated at 50/50 to recover from his muscle injury), and I can’t support them at 1.8910/11 in the Match Odds market. Rose’s side has won just five of the last ten road matches in the league. I’ll lay the visitors.