Premier League Betting: How January window changes the 21/22 season

“Antonio Conte won’t be entirely satisfied with a window that saw Tottenham Hotspur have a net spend of -£20 million with several of his key targets moving elsewhere, but on balance the club’s late double purchase from Juventus leaves them in the driving seat to finish fourth.”

The January transfer window has closed and in the Premier League it was arguably the most significant in years. Major plays were made by a host of clubs as £295 million was spent across the month. A total of 12 moves on deadline day made it the most expensive January since 2018, when £430 million was splashed on the likes of Virgil van Dijk, Aymeric Laporte, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

But what makes this year’s window so interesting is that clubs involved in the title race, top-four race, and relegation battle have strengthened significantly. Here’s a rundown of the major moves and how they affect the key outright markets in the Premier League:

Top Four: Spurs may hold new advantage

Antonio Conte won’t be entirely satisfied with a window that saw Tottenham Hotspur have a net spend of -£20 million, with several of his key targets moving elsewhere, but on balance the club’s late double purchase from Juventus leaves them in the driving seat to finish fourth.

Rodrigo Bentancur is a very astute signing.

His powerful dribbling style makes him the aggressive, press-resistant holding midfielder that Conte has been after. The 24-year-old is immediately an upgrade on Oliver Skipp or Harry Winks in a defensive and offensive capacity, injecting energy into a midfield that had threatened to look a little flat under the Italian.

It was an area of the pitch that led to some stale possession, but now Bentancur can provide a penetrative quality. Conte will be disappointed not to get a right wing-back, although signing 21-year-old Dejan Kulusevski could turn out to be a coup. A tall, powerful right winger with the versatility to play as a ten, Kulusevski may instantly replace Bryan Gil, who leaves the club on loan.

What’s more, Conte may now look to convert Lucas into a right wing-back, as he did with Victor Moses at Chelsea and was planning with Adama Traore, finally giving Spurs width and creativity on both flanks.

Their main rivals Arsenal and Manchester United failed to strengthen; a grand total of zero incomings between them despite serious flaws in the first half of the campaign. United needed to upgrade in central midfield but just couldn’t find value, while Arsenal are weakened with the loss of Aubameyang to Barcelona.

Relegation: Newcastle to avoid the drop

The richest club in the relegation fight have made huge progress this month. Newcastle United spench much of January in a blind panic but ultimately bought smartly – and in positions that ought to help them in the tough battle that lies ahead.

The headline purchase is Bruno Guimaraes, an all-action midfielder signed from Lyon for £40 million and the kind of high-profile acquisition the new owners would have hoped to sign more of this month. Guimaraes is a massive uptick in quality in central midfield, Newcastle’s weakest area, and his ability to break up play so effectively should help Eddie Howe – whose teams tend to be too porous through the middle.

But of even greater significance are the improvements made across the back line. Howe’s Bournemouth conceded far too many goals during their time in the Premier League, and that poor defensive is the main reason many had backed Newcastle to go down. However, adding Kieran Trippier, Matt Targett, and Dan Burn changes things. Burn has a lot of experience at the bottom end of this division and Targett should compliment Trippier nicely on the overlap.

Newcastle certainly seem a lot stronger than Burnley, from whom they took Chris Wood, and Norwich City, who have lost Todd Cantwell. Watford have made a few new signings to help Roy Hodgson but the Magpies clearly have a stronger squad than them.

Resurgence: Villa & Everton on the up

Though they have less to play for, Aston Villa and Everton supporters have had an exciting window. Steven Gerrard was pipped to signing Bentancur and a deal for Yves Bissouma didn’t happen, which probably means Villa are too weak in defensive midfield to make an unlikely push for seventh, and yet it was a good window regardless.

Philippe Coutinho and Lucas Digne are excellent additions who should help Villa climb into the top ten this season.

That is too much to ask of Everton under new manager Frank Lampard, and while his tactical deficiencies leave a big question mark over his tenure the good feel around the club, and the subsequent new-manager bounce, will be enough to get the wins Everton need to get out of trouble.

Dele Alli and Donny van der Beek are both intriguing gambles, just like the manager, but if Lampard still has a gung-ho philosophy then these two may flourish with the freedom to advance into the final third however they wish.

There is no doubt the experiment will be entertaining for neutrals, at the very least.

Title: Diaz may give Liverpool a shot

Manchester City’s draw with Southampton in their last match has given Liverpool a chance to close in on Pep Guardiola’s team, who have squeezed through quite a lot of their matches this season and could be susceptible to more draws in the coming weeks.

Liverpool only need to out-perform City by three points before their meeting at the Etihad in April to make that game a title decider.

Getting players to full fitness, especially Fabinho and Thiago Alcantara, is the key to putting together the sort of extraordinary run Jurgen Klopp will need to topple Man City, and indeed going into the window there was no obvious place for Liverpool to strengthen – especially with Harvey Elliot coming back next month to provide a new perspective.

But signing Luiz Diaz gives them an extra oomph. Diaz has an unbelievable output this season of 14 goals and four assists in 18 league games for Porto, playing with a razor-sharp edge in keeping with Liverpool’s aesthetic. His explosiveness, his acceleration from standing, and his ability to dribble left or right, can take Liverpool up to another level as fatigue sets in in the second half of the season.

Liverpool’s chances are slim, but Diaz will make Guardiola worry just that little bit more – and it’s worth a punt at 6/1.