Our football props column has a 13/1 suggestion for Sunday night’s Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final between Senegal and Equatorial Guinea.
“Equatorial Guinea like to get stuck in. They’d committed the third-most fouls prior to the quarter-finals, with only Gabon collecting more yellow cards.”
Senegal v Equatorial Guinea
Sunday 30 January, 19:00
Live on BBC2, Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Premier League
Senegal may be 4/7 to win this Africa Cup of Nations quarter-final but I’m expecting this to be a competitive, hard-fought affair.
The tournament’s joint favourites have beaten only Zimbabwe and Cape Verde so far, being held by Malawi and Guinea in the group stage. They are yet to concede but an attack led by Sadio Mane – set to be declared fit after his head injury last time out – have scored only three times.
Opponents Equatorial Guinea have also seen just three goals in their four games in the tournament – two for themselves and one against.
But while going low on goals seems an obvious move, it’s hardly a get-rich-quick scheme with the layers long having cottoned on to this angle of attack from punters.
Instead, I’m turning to cards.
Equatorial Guinea like to get stuck in. They’d committed the third-most fouls prior to the quarter-finals, with only Gabon collecting more yellow cards.
It’s also notable that both sides rank highly in terms of being fouled – the duo sat in the top eight (of 24) following the last-16 ties.
Midfield has been a particular battle area for EG and so my cards double focuses on those in the middle of the pitch.
First up is EG’s Federico Bikoro, who has committed 11 fouls in his three games at the tournament. Only three players have more to their name.
The Hercules star has also picked up two yellow cards – they were wiped after the group stage so he’s available to play in this one.
In what looks a key area in this match, let’s add him to the coupon.
On the Senegal side, Pape Gueye gets the nod.
The Marseille man came into the starting XI for the first time for the win over Cape Verde and should keep his spot.
He’s been carded regularly in France – 12 last season, five so far this – and is currently on a run of four cards in his last eight appearances for club and country.
The defensive midfielder will have one of EG’s dangermen, Ivan Salvador, bursting into his area of the field and it’s not hard to envisage him adding to his card tally.
Admittedly the referee, South African Victor Gomes, could be a better one so it’s not a bet to go crazy on but the 13/1 double looks worth a try.
Our AFCON expert James Eastham on Sunday’s two quarter-finals
Source: BetFair Tips
