African Nations Cup QF Tips: Senegal to continue their slow march towards final

Morocco firepower the key factor

Egypt vs Morocco
Sun, 19:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports

Morocco have been the better of these two sides at the tournament so far and are the smarter bet ahead of what promises to be a fascinating encounter against Egypt.

The Atlas Lions have played some entertaining stuff every step of the way and their status as 5.49/2 third favourites to win the tournament – behind Senegal and hosts Cameroon – is fully justified.

Morocco’s defending has been a little looser than expected, but what has marked them out from most other sides at the finals has been their ability to undo opposing defences almost at will.

They produced a dominant attacking performance in beating Comoros 2-0 in the group stage and twice came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw against Gabon.

In the Last 16 they came from behind again, this time deservedly defeating Malawi 2-1 to take their place in the last eight.

Egypt have been an altogether more moderate side. In the group stage they were involved in three 1-0 scorelines – two wins and one defeat – and then won on penalties vs Ivory Coast in the Last 16 after an even contest that ended 0-0.

A lack of consistent creativity and inspiration in the final third suggests Egypt will struggle to win in 90 minutes here.

With more attacking weapons at their disposal, Morocco stand a better chance of claiming victory in normal time. They will have greater confidence in their ability going forward, too, having scored twice in each of their last three matches.

Morocco are 2.77/4 to win in 90 minutes, with Egypt 3.3512/5 and The Draw 2.757/4. At those odds, Morocco are worth considering.

Alternatively, back Morocco on the Draw No Bet market. With this selection, you’ll make a profit if Morocco win in 90 minutes, and get your stakes back if the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes.

Low goals the smart selection

Senegal vs Equatorial Guinea
Sun, 19:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports

Senegal have ridden all the way to the quarter-finals on a low-scoring wave and we expect that pattern to continue when they meet Equatorial Guinea on Sunday evening.

Senegal have yet to concede a goal at the finals but have scored only three of their own in their four games to date, and have needed a helping hand along the way.

Their only goal in three group games came from the penalty spot deep into injury-time against Zimbabwe, Sadio Mane netting to secure three points.

Then, in the Last 16, Senegal laboured for long spells even though opponents Cape Verde went down to 10 and then nine men. Aliou Cisse’s side finally made the breakthrough via Mane on 63 minutes, before substitute Bamba Dieng made it 2-0 deep into injury-time.

At the other end, Senegal have been able to rely on a rock-solid defence: The Lions of Teranga are yet to concede a goal at the finals. That’s the main reason they’re 3.613/5 favourites at the time of writing to lift the trophy.

Equatorial Guinea are a more limited yet essentially similar team: they too have relied on defence to get this far, with goals from them a rarity.

They beat Algeria and Sierra Leone 1-0 in the group phase, losing to Ivory Coast by the same scoreline.

In the Last 16, Equatorial Guinea’s dour encounter against Mali ended in a 0-0 draw, before the underdogs went on to win on penalties.

Given the strengths and weaknesses of these two sides, plus the fact that Equatorial Guinea will almost certainly sit back and look to frustrate Senegal for as long as they possibly can, backing a low-scoring encounter is the way to go.

Seven of these two sides’ eight games at the tournament so far have featured no goals or one goal, with one game having exactly two goals.

Based on those figures, there’s little downside to backing 2.0 on the Goal Lines market at 1.75/7. With this selection, you’ll make a profit if the game has no goals or one goal in 90 minutes, and get your stakes back if the game has exactly two goals in 90 minutes.

PREM WATCH

Mohamed Salah will need to be at his best for Egypt to have any chance of progressing past Morocco. The Liverpool striker has netted once at the tournament so far. He’s 3.211/5 to score against Morocco in the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Salah’s Reds colleague Sadio Mane is just as important to his country. Mane has scored two of Senegal’s three goals at these finals, and is 2.6313/8 to find the net against Equatorial Guinea.