Derby v Birmingham: Back Rams to land the first blow

“The Rams have broken the deadlock in 10 of their 11 home games that didn’t end 0-0”

Derby v Birmingham
Sunday January 30, 13:30
Sky Sports

Crucial days ahead for Derby

Uncertainty continues to reign at Derby County as the battle to save the club reaches a crucial stage. There have been positive noises in recent days, with three parties still interested in buying the club, while the EFL has said a solution can be found to save the Rams and resolve the issues that are currently holding up a takeover.

On the field, Derby return to action for the first time this weekend following their feisty 2-1 derby defeat to Nottingham Forest last time out. The loss ended a five-game unbeaten streak (W4-D1-L0) for County that’s given supporters hope that the unthinkable could occur under Wayne Rooney‘s watch – the Rams are now just eight points adrift of survival.

With the transfer window coming to a close, Rooney’s squad could look very different coming into this clash, although the Derby chief is confident things won’t get any worse.

Rooney said: “The next few days are crucial. I’ve had assurances that I don’t have to sell. The administrators have said they are confident someone will come in this week. It is a terrible position to be in and needs sorting. We need preferred bidders to help this club exist. If not we will have to see what we can do at the end of the window.”

Bowyer demands improvement from Birmingham

Birmingham boss Lee Bowyer was unhappy with his team after seeing Blues score twice in the final five minutes to salvage 2-2 home draw against struggling Peterborough on Tuesday night. Gary Gardner fired in what seemed a late consolation before Scott Hogan‘s headed secured an unlikely point and Lukas Jutkiewicz almost bagged a remarkable late winner.

Bowyer said: “We didn’t deserve anything- and the game’s crazy isn’t it because if you look at it realistically, we probably should have won it with Jukey’s chance at the end. But we didn’t deserve anything. You can’t start playing in the 80th-85th minute and expect to win games. Just do the basics right, you know. We were second best, I can’t defend the lads.

Changes are expected from Birmingham on Sunday with the likes of Kristian Pedersen and Jordan James possibly making way. Elsewhere, Blues are hoping to complete a couple of late January transfer deals with Lyle Taylor and Juninho Bacuna heavily linked with a move to St Andrew’s. Both new signings could feature from the off in a refreshed XI from Bowyer.

Derby have suffered back-to-back defeats to Birmingham, including a 2-0 reverse when the two teams met back in September. However, the Rams’ longer-term results have tended to be positive when taking on the Blues – County have posted W7-D2-L2 in 11 head-to-head encounters dating back to 2016, as well as a W5-D4-L2 home record against City since 2007.

Derby 2.3611/8 would be sat just one point off the top-half if their 21-point penalty hadn’t been imposed (W8-D11-L8). Wayne Rooney’s outfit have only twice suffered consecutive league defeats this term and boast a defiant W6-D5-L2 return at Pride Park – both losses arriving against top-six teams. County also own the second-best home defence in the division.

Birmingham 3.505/2 have managed a solitary success in nine outings across all competitions and only two Championship triumphs in 12 attempts dating back to the beginning of November (W2-D4-L6). Blues have also struggled on the road, taking top honours just once on their travels since August (W1-D4-L7), scoring only seven goals in those 12 away days.

Derby’s matches this season have produced the lowest goals per-game average in the Championship – the Rams contests feature just 1.93 goals per-game with 17/27 (63%) of fixtures seeing Under 2.5 Goals 1.501/2 backers collect. County’s 13 outings at Pride Park have seen 2.08 goals on average with 8/13 (62%) encounters seeing fewer than three goals bank.

Birmingham have also tended to be reasonably tight on their travels with 9/14 (64%) of games as guests paying-out in the Under 2.5 Goals market. However, the market is already anticipating an attritional encounter so instead, taking a chance on Derby to score first at an appealing 1.834/5 ahead of Sunday afternoon’s showdown.

Despite their plight, County have a habit for starting strongly, particularly at Pride Park. The Rams have broken the deadlock in 10 of their 11 home games that didn’t end 0-0. Meanwhile, Birmingham have conceded first in nine of their 12 away tussles that weren’t goalless draws.