Premier League Title Betting: Five reasons Liverpool can win the title

“Before they meet at the Etihad, Liverpool only need to out-perform City in the intervening eight matches by three points to eradicate Guardiola’s advantage.”

Manchester City are nine points clear at the top of the Premier League and 1.152/13 to retain the title. It’s a gap that most people consider insurmountable and one that allowed Pep Guardiola to shrug off dropped points against Southampton on Saturday. He is relaxed about their lead, probably with good reason.

But there is a slither of hope that we will get a dramatic end to the 2021/22 season that mean Liverpool’s odds of 7.06/1 to lift the Premier League title are perhaps a little too long.

As Southampton showed at the weekend, it is possible to grind down City and steal points from them.

Here are five reasons why, with a bit of luck, the title race might not be over…

1) Mid-level teams can slow down City

Pep Guardiola’s team aren’t as tactically immaculate as they are made out to be. A remarkable run of 11 straight wins has set the narrative of Man City being at their Centurion-era best, but there were several fortunate results in that sequence that could have left us with an entirely different conclusion.

The template Southampton followed to deservedly take a point from Man City for the second time this season had also been used by Wolves, Aston Villa, and West Ham, all of which were unlucky to lose by a single goal in recent weeks. The idea, which others in the Premier League’s mid-level teams can follow with some success in the final four months of the season, is fairly straightforward.

Saints sat back in a 4-4-2 formation, refusing to apply pressure to the City centre-backs but also making sure they did not drop right back into their own third. By holding firm in a compressed midblock, and by using their shape to surround Rodri, Southampton forced City into slow football built harmlessly down the wings.

City are still vunerable when the other team has a clear plan and the capacity to fearlessly counter-attack.

2) Lack of striker continues to be a minor issue

While many pundits have decided that Guardiola’s striker-less system is a stroke of tactical genius, it remains a (minor) problem. When teams like Southampton, Wolves, or Villa hold firm in a deep-ish formation, City lack that penetrative runner in behind and the clinical finishing of a forward who can turn half-chances into goals.

That was particularly obvious against Southampton on Saturday, when Jack Grealish repeatedly came short as the false nine, allowing the Saints defenders to hold their ground and keep an eye on events happening almost exclusively in front of them.

It is notable that City have scored one or fewer goals in four of their last eight Premier League games and on eight occasions in total. Guardiola’s team either win by a comfortable margin or squeeze through games, and while winning ugly – or at least taking rare chances – is considered a sign of champions, it also means only the slightest shift in fortune could give Liverpool a chance.

3) Liverpool are over their wobble

The problems Liverpool had over winter appear to be in the past. The 3-1 win over Crystal Palace was still a little bit shaky in the second half, but Jurgen Klopp was right when he described the result as a huge moment in their season. From here, with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane coming back, Liverpool ought to be over their wobble.

The only difference between Liverpool this season and the team that won the title in 2020/21 is defensive solidity, with Klopp’s team oddly open to being caught on the counter-attack this season – as Palace proved with numerous balls in behind. Virgil van Dijk hasn’t returned from injury the same player and it threatens to derail their season.

Liverpool have conceded two or more goals in six of the eight Premier League games in which they have not won this season, including a 3-3- draw and three 2-2 draws. Clearly, goalscoring is not the issue. If Klopp drops the defensive line by just a few yards, then this chink in their armour can be mended.

4) Gap is smaller than it looks

All of the above is relevant for the simple reason that Man City’s lead at the top is more precarious than it might seem. Should Liverpool win their games in hand then the gap will go down to six. With Liverpool still to play Man City at the Etihad in April, as little as a three-point swing prior to that meeting is enough to put the two clubs neck and neck.

In other words, Liverpool only need to out-perform Man City in the intervening eight matches by a measly three points to eradicate Guardiola’s advantage. If that is to happen, it will probably be in early spring.

5) Tough run in March could see a points swing

If Liverpool can get a string of wins together and remain within six points then City may feel the pressure during a February and March run that looks relatively difficult.

Sandwiched between two Champions League matches against Sporting – games that tend to signify the beginning of the ‘business end’ of the season – Man City face Tottenham at home, then travel to Goodison Park to play an Everton side that may have their act together under a new manager, and finally welcome Manchester United to the Etihad.

After that spell, West Ham away and Liverpool at home are arguably the only two matches that will trouble Guardiola’s team. Nevertheless, by mid-March the Premier League table may look a lot different.

With the odds so long, it’s worth a small punt on Liverpool.