Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top-four race intensifies…
“RB Leipzig have been sneaking up on the top four since their elimination from this season’s Champions League group stages, and Domenico Tedesco’s side have the underlying numbers to worry the group of teams above them.”
Frankfurt to keep top-four hopes alive
Eintracht Frankfurt v Arminia Bielefeld
Friday, 19:30
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Dropped points in recent weeks have dented Eintracht Frankfurt’s hopes of Champions League qualification, but the season is long and a win on Friday can put the pressure on their rivals. Visitors Arminia have ridden their luck a little to earn eight points from their last four games, and Infogol’s model expects the home side to claim the points and leave their opponents in trouble
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Augsburg’s away woes to continue
Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Augsburg still have just one away league win all season, with their 0.98 xGF average playing a part, and a trip to the BayArena is unlikely to change that. They could end this weekend back in the bottom two, depending on other results, and Infogol’s model backs the home side to complete a league double after scoring four in a comfortable win at WWK Arena back in August.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.007/1
Freiburg to rebound from Dortmund setback
Freiburg v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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After a blunt display brought a heavy defeat at Signal Iduna Park last weekend, Freiburg should be confident of victory against struggling Stuttgart. The visitors have been averaging 1.84 xGA away from home, winning just one of their nine outings in the process, and Infogol’s model anticipates a home victory which will leave Stuttgart in the bottom three at the end of the weekend.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Mainz to push back towards European places
Greuther Fürth v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Mainz have dropped out of European contention after a difficult few weeks, but a trip to bottom-of-the-table Fürth offers an opportunity to pull themselves out of their recent funk. The hosts have the worst away record in the league, with six points and a 1.67 xGA average, and are expected to struggle against opponents who earned a comfortable 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Dortmund to pick up vital win at Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim tend to make Dortmund work hard for a result when these teams meet, with Erling Haaland’s last-gasp winner in August just one recent example, but Marco Rose’s side need to make a statement after their surprise DFB-Pokal elimination. This game tends to produce goals, and Infogol’s model expects Saturday’s meeting to be no exception, but the visitors are expected to cement themselves in second place.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 16.0015/1
Gladbach to dent Union’s top-four hopes
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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After briefly climbing into the top four last time out, Union could be made to rue their underwhelming away record at Borussia-Park. Urs Fischer’s side have underperformed against their numbers on the road, and Infogol expects them to taste defeat against a team averaging 1.94 xGF at home to lose ground on their rivals for a Champions League place.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Bochum to preserve impressive home record
Bochum v Köln
Saturday, 17:30
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Bochum still boast the Bundesliga’s best home defensive record, though it will be put to the test against a Köln side unbeaten on the road since October. Victory for the home side can give them some breathing space ahead of a congested bottom of the table, and Infogol’s model backs them to gain revenge after Steffen Baumgart’s side left it late to clinch the points in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Leipzig to maintain Champions League charge
RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg
Sunday, 14:30
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RB Leipzig have been sneaking up on the top four since their elimination from this season’s Champions League group stages, and Domenico Tedesco’s side have the underlying numbers to worry the group of teams above them. Next up for them is a Wolfsburg side who finished in the top four with them last season but who stand little chance this time around, and the hosts are comfortable favourites for this one.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Bayern to stay in control at the top
Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich
Sunday, 16:30
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After averaging 2.13 xGA across their last four games, Hertha can’t feel too confident of shutting out Bayern at the Olympiastadion. The visitors may still be without some first-teamers, but Infogol still backs the league leaders to follow last weekend’s comfortable victory at Köln with another away win as they look to maintain a stranglehold at the top of the table.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Source: Betfair German
