With the group stage entering its final phase, James Eastham looks at the best bets as Group A reaches its climax on Monday afternoon…
Back goals in Cameroon fixture
Cape Verde vs Cameroon (Group A)
Mon, 16:00 GMT
One of the old betting adages says you should never back a team that doesn’t need to win. That puts us off supporting Cameroon ahead of their third and final Group A fixture on Monday afternoon.
The Indomitable Lions are already assured of a Last-16 place thanks to their total of six points from opening two games. They want to claim top spot in the group and a draw here would be enough for them to achieve that objective.
In contrast, opponents Cape Verde have yet to qualify for the knockout phase so they have everything to play for. This difference in motivation, perhaps on a subconscious level only, is worth taking into account.
For that reason, we’re avoiding the Match Odds market and prefer to focus on the goals markets instead.
Cameroon have played some thrilling attacking football, scoring six goals across their opening two fixtures. Vincent Aboubakar is the tournament’s four-goal top scorer, with Lyon’s Karl Toko Ekambi having weighed in with the side’s other two goals.
With another large crowd expected to turn up and provide excellent support for the host nation here, a third consecutive attacking performance is likely. Former Cameroon greats Samuel Eto’o – now the Cameroonian FA president – and Roger Milla have spoken to the squad ahead of this game, imploring the players to produce another big display.
The goals-per-game count at the tournament has increased in recent days. Across the first round of group games, the average goals-per-game count was 1.00. At the time of writing, the average goals-per-game count across the second round of group games is 2.25.
Given the way the scoring stats are going and the way this game’s likely to unfold, we’re happy to back Over 2.0 in the Goal Lines market at 1.910/11. With this selection, you’ll get your stakes back if there are exactly two goals, and make a profit if there are three or more goals.
Burkina Faso to claim Last 16 spot
Burkina Faso vs Ethiopia (Group A)
Mon, 16:00 GMT
There’s everything to play for here as two sides that can still qualify for the knockout phase go head-to-head.
Burkina Faso need to win to be sure of claiming a place in the Last 16, while Ethiopia might still sneak into the knockout phase if they win even though they have no points on the board after suffering defeats to Cape Verde (1-0) and Cameroon (4-1) in their opening two games.
On paper and based on these two sides’ performances so far, Burkina Faso look the stronger outfit. They were a touch unlucky to lose 2-1 to hosts Cameroon in their opening game – both Cameroon goals came from the penalty spot – but they bounced back well to deservedly beat Cape Verde 1-0 in their second match.
The lack of a reliable goalscorer in the Burkina Faso camp is a long-running concern. This may stop them making the latter stages of the tournament, but shouldn’t be a major concern versus defensively vulnerable opponents.
Ethiopia were cut open at will in losing 4-1 to Cameroon. Needing to win here to stand any chance of maintaining their interest in the competition, Ethiopia have to attack and will almost certainly be obliged to take risks at some poin, too. This would play straight into Burkina Faso’s hands.
Burkina Faso are 1.758/11 collect all three points, with Ethiopia 6.411/2 and The Draw 3.3512/5. At those odds, Burkina Faso are an appealing selection given they have looked considerably stronger than Ethiopia at the tournament so far.
If you’re looking for bigger odds, consider backing Burkina Faso -0.5 & -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.0521/20. With this selection, half your stakes will win if Burkina Faso win by a single goal, and your entire stakes will win at good odds if Burkina Faso win by two or more goals. For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.
Source: BetFair Tips
