Saturday’s cheat sheet comes with a Friday bonus as Man City go to Swindon to get the FA Cup third round underway. There are also tips for Bundesliga, La Liga and Ligue One…
Millwall tend to be perform strongly against better opposition and they would relish the chance to dump their rivals Palace out of this competition.
Swindon 18.017/1 v Man City 1.192/11, the Draw 9.08/1
Friday, 20:00
Live on ITV1
The FA Cup third round gets under way with the Premier League champions travelling to League Two side Swindon on Friday night. The match also features as the Betfair Game of the Day.
Ian Lamont says: “Did ITV think there could be an FA Cup upset here? Or did they just want to show Manchester City’s biggest-name stars through their channel? Even on that, they could be disappointed.
“Swindon, say Opta, last reached the FA Cup fourth round in 2011-12, while City, the favourites in the FA Cup winners’ market at 4.216/5, have won their last seven ties against fourth tier opposition, going back to 1984.
“This season, the visitors have six straight wins and 14 in their last 15 matches. Swindon beat Northampton on New Year’s Day for a first win in five, bucking home form that has not been fantastic.
“City will be wary of the draw, after West Ham beat them on penalties in the League Cup and knowing that third round replays are scrapped because of Covid-induced fixture congestion.”
Ian’s bet: Back over 4.5 goals @ 2.77/4
Millwall 3.8514/5 v Crystal Palace 2.0811/10, the Draw 3.45
Saturday, 12:45
Live on ITV1
A south London derby is on the televised menu early on Saturday so will it be one to savour? Our Championship specialist discusses the Lions’ chances of upsetting Patrick Vieira’s men.
Jack Critchley says: “Millwall have struggled for numbers across the festive period and having played three consecutive away games throughout December and five matches on the road since November 20th, Gary Rowett will be pleased to return to the Den.
“The game is sold out and there should be a raucous atmosphere inside the stadium. These two rivals haven’t met since 2013, however, the Lions have failed to score in three of the last four meetings between these two London clubs.
“Nevertheless, the hosts tend to be perform strongly against better opposition and they would relish the chance to dump their rivals out of this competition. Palace have plenty of individual quality, however, they look a little too short in the match betting at 2.186/5 to secure a victory at this intimidating venue.”
Jack’s bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.758/11
Hoffenheim 1.68/13 v Augsburg 6.05/1, the Draw 4.67/2
Saturday, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Our Bundesliga expert has posted a healthy profit in the first half of the season and returns with three more bets for this weekend in Germany’s top flight.
Kevin Hatchard says: “Hoffenheim have won five of their eight league games at the PreZero Arena, and although we are sadly back to geisterspiele (ghost games) with no fans because of COVID-19, I still think Hoffe’s home record will hold up. The fans in Sinsheim aren’t exactly an intimidating bunch, and even if this game against Augsburg was on neutral ground, I’d still back Hoeness’s side to win.
“Perhaps the most important development at Hoffenheim has been the move away from total reliance on Andrej Kramaric in attack. The Croatian has only scored twice in the league this term, while Ilhas Bebou (five goals) and Georginio Rutter (four goals) have also shone up front. A more varied attacking unit has helped the southern side rack up 35 goals in 17 league outings.”
Kevin’s bet: Back Hoffenheim -1.0 on the Asian Handicap v Hoffenheim at 2.01/1
Leicester 1.618/13 v Watford 6.611/2, the Draw 4.216/5
Saturday, 15:00
Dan Fitch previews the pick of the non-televised FA Cup ties on Saturday, including several Premier League clubs. The headline match in his rundown is the all top flight clash between Leicester and Watford at the King Power.
Dan says: “This all-Premier League affair sees Leicester as fairly heavy favourites.
“Watford have lost each of their last six games, which is a run that started with a 4-2 defeat at Leicester. Back a repeat, with the home win and both teams to score at 3.55.”
Hull 4.216/5 v Everton 1.9720/21, the Draw 3.55
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BBC1
Both Hull City and Everton are struggling in their respective divisions and that could make for an entertaining FA Cup tie
Kevin Hatchard says: “It’s hard to contemplate backing Everton to win with any kind of confidence, and certainly not at 1.981/1. This is a Toffees team that lacks form and rhythm, and Benitez hasn’t been able to find a way to rack up clean sheets.
“Hull have only lost two of their last seven home matches in the league, this is a big game on TV, and the crowd can play their part. There’s certainly an argument to say Hull can avoid defeat inside 90 minutes, so laying the visitors looks an attractive option.
“If you want to be creative, and you think Hull can push the tie to extra time (there are no replays), you could put small stakes on Hull to win in extra time at 13/1 on the Sportsbook and Hull to win on penalties at 10/1.”
Kevin’s bet: Back Both Teams To Score @ 1.824/5
Real Madrid 1.384/11 v Valencia 9.617/2, the Draw 5.69/2
Saturday, 20:00
Live on LaLiga TV and Betfair Live Video
Carlo Ancelotti’s table-toppers will be looking to bounce back after a defeat last time out and our La Liga previewer expects them to do exactly that.
Dan Fitch says: “Getafe beat Madrid 1-0 a week ago, ending a 15-match unbeaten run across all competitions. The defeat allowed second placed Sevilla to close the gap on the La Liga leaders to five points.
“With Sevilla also having a game in hand, the need for Real Madrid to get back to winning ways is obvious. Madrid are unbeaten in nine home league games this season (W6 D3), but in their most recent outing at the Bernabeu they drew 0-0, which was their third home goalless draw during this campaign.
“Another goalless draw doesn’t seem likely against Valencia, who have scored and conceded in each of their last six games.”
Source: Betfair German
