La Liga Tips: Atléti and La Real to make up top four ground in Gameweek 19

“Three defeats on the spin have seen Atlético Madrid’s title defence all but ended, but a return to Wanda Metropolitano can at least allow them to remain in contention for a top four finish.”

Valencia v Espanyol
Friday, 15:15
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Valencia haven’t lost in seven league games, though their victory at Levante last time out was a little fortunate. Opponents Espanyol have continued to struggle on the road, though, with no wins and the league’s worst xGF return, and unless they show a sudden improvement at the Mestalla it looks like being a fourth win on the bounce for the hosts.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2

Real Madrid to end Getafe’s unbeaten run

Getafe v Real Madrid
Sunday, 13:00
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Getafe went into the break unbeaten in five, with just one goal conceded and 3.35 xGA in total across the five matches. Things could be tougher against Real Madrid, with the visitors boasting a 1.93 xGF average on the road and picking up more points than any other La Liga side away from home, though last year’s meeting ended goalless as Madrid struggled to gain a foothold in the game.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 8.808/1

Atléti to snap out of losing streak

Atlético Madrid v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 15:15
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Three defeats on the spin have seen Atlético Madrid’s title defence all but ended, but a return to Wanda Metropolitano can at least allow them to remain in contention for a top four finish. Opponents Rayo are ahead of the champions, though a win for the hosts would see that change, and Andoni Iraola’s side will need to overcome an underwhelming away record to stand a chance.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 8.6015/2

Granada to pip Elche for third straight win

Elche v Granada
Sunday, 15:15
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A five-game unbeaten run has seen Granada pull clear from danger, but their 1.83 xGA average is still a concern for Robert Moreno’s side. Infogol’s model can’t find much to choose between them and Elche, but the visitors have a slight edge against a home side averaging just 1.14 xGF at Martínez Valero and who lost the corresponding fixture 1-0 last season.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 13.0012/1 or 1-1 @ 6.4011/2

Mendilibar to taste defeat on Alavés bow

Alavés v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
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Two out-of-form sides meet at Mendizorrotza, with Alavés’ recent downturn seeing Javier Calleja dismissed as manager. His replacement José Luis Mendilibar is making his La Liga return after suffering relegation with Eibar, and faces a tough challenge to begin with against a Real Sociedad side who have 14 away goals already this term and beat his former club towards the end of last season.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2

Betis to cling onto Champions League berth

Real Betis v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 17:30
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A defeat in their last game before Christmas wasn’t enough to keep Real Betis out of the top four, and Manuel Pellegrini’s side can cement themselves in third place. The hosts have a 1.76 xGF average at Benito Villamarín, and Infogol’s model backs them to repeat last season’s victory over Celta, when a first-half double from Sergio Canales turned the tie in their favour.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1

Barça to extend unbeaten run to four games

Mallorca v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona fans have cause for optimism with Ferran Torres and Dani Alves due to join up with their teammates in January, and a trip to Mallorca gives Xavi’s side a chance to start the new year with a bang. Barça have averaged 2.24 xGF in their three games since suffering elimination from the Champions League, and they should be comfortable against a Mallorca side who haven’t won at home since October.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 19.50

Villarreal to keep Levante winless

Villarreal v Levante
Monday, 18:00
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Levante scored three times in each of their last two games of 2021, with the underlying numbers supporting their efforts, but still failed to earn a first win of the season. Alessio Lisci’s side have the best xGF return in the entire bottom half, but Infogol doesn’t expect them to get off the mark against a Villarreal side coming off four straight wins in all competitions including a 5-2 hammering of Alavés.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Osasuna to continue trending downward

Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao
Monday, 20:00
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With an average of 0.83 xGF across their last six games, it’s pretty clear where Osasuna’s issues lie. Things are unlikely to get much easier against an Athletic side with the best defensive record in the league, though their four goals conceded in nine games is a considerable overperformance compared to their underlying numbers. Infogol favours the visitors here, in what is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1

Sevilla to hold firm in second

Cádiz v Sevilla
Monday, 20:00
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Second-place Sevilla’s 1.09 xGA average on the road is the league’s most impressive return, and Julen Lopetegui should feel confident about his team picking up a result against a Cádiz side still winless at home. The hosts briefly led in the corresponding fixture last season before conceding three times in the final half-hour, and Infogol’s model anticipates another away win to leave Álvaro Cervera’s side in the bottom three.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 8.207/1