League Two Tips: Sutton can continue to delight

Sutton can play to home strengths

Sutton 1.910/11 v Colchester 4.57/2; the draw 4.03/1

Another shortened fixture list and some odds-on home teams present a challenge to find tips of value. On the face of it, Sutton, the season’s surprise package, should beat their visitors. The home U’s have won their past three home games, while Colchester have not scored in six games on their travels.

The away U’s have mustered two points in those six though (in fact all three of their goalless draws have been outside Essex), making a draw at 4.03/1 not impossible. Hayden Mullins’ men have the joint fewest goals on the road, with six. Sutton have 17 at home. They have conceded nine which, from 10 games at Gander Green Lane, might sneak us into over 2.5 goals territory, available at 2.26/5.

Just one problem lies in the fact that Matt Gray’s men have won those last three home games to nil – with one goal or two. They are quite capable of scoring more, or conceding, but that has tended to be away of late.

David Ajoboye has three goals in four games and the hosts have plenty of firepower in Donovan Wilson and, importantly, Isaac Olaofe, whom they will hope is not recalled by Millwall from his season-long loan.

They might not have the biggest number each, but Colchester struggle to get going in front of goal. Freddie Sears and Sly Jasper have a lot to do to get past a home defence that doesn’t seem to want to be breeched. And the way to solve the tipping riddle is to head to Sportsbook and combine the home win with over 2.5 goals at 11-4.

Tranmere to find Pools stubborn hosts

Hartlepool 2.77/4 v Tranmere 3.185/40; the draw 3.39/4

Another team that has won to nil recently is Tranmere. In fact, they have done so frequently, including in the reverse fixture. However, what Micky Mellon’s team have not done is win away very often. Five times they have drawn on their travels, winning three – all 1-0, two of them in their past three matches.

Even though they are top of the six-game form table and Pools are bottom, they might have difficulty picking off their hosts, who have seven wins and three draws from 13 at home.

After three home defeats against Harrogate – who were in form – Newport – have put on a burst of it – and leaders Forest Green, Graeme Lee’s side did revert to type by defeating Rochdale on home turf, where they also were held by Scunthorpe in a goalless game.

A Boxing Day defeat at Mansfield left Lee disappointed with how they dealt with crosses into their own box after going 2-0 up and then losing 3-2. Luke Molyneux and Nicky Featherstone had things sorted at the other end.

Lee can only hope they can have the same quick start against Rovers. They might have trouble, as Tranmere have conceded just 14 goals – the fewest in League Two almost by a country mile, with Northampton’s 17 the exception.

The visitors have also scored the fewest – 20 – but tight results have taken them into the top three. Paul Glatzel is still out with a hamstring injury and Nicky Maynard stepped up to score instead to win the home match with Barrow, with Kieron Morris chipping in his fourth of the season, from midfield. Are Hartlepool on a mini revival enough for a draw? If they can block off the visitors’ supply lines they might be able to achieve one.

Valiants a nice price for away win

Rochdale 3.613/5 v Port Vale 3.39/4; the draw 3.613/5

Port Vale have many factors to overcome if they are to win at Rochdale, but they are a juicy price to do so, which is too tempting to ignore for a team in fifth and pursuing automatic promotion.

Danny Whitehead has been recalled from his loan at Altrincham to boost numbers in midfield, after the Valiants called off two matches through Covid. Will they feel refreshed for the break or fatigued from the Omicron variant when they try to return to pulsating athletic activity?

Port Vale have scored in 10 of their 11 away games, with their away matches featuring 34 goals in total. Boss Darrell Clarke will hope Ben Garrity can reproduce the magic of his past three games, scoring four times.

Maybe Dennis Politic can pop up with another goal, even from the bench. Defender Dan Jones will at last start to serve a suspension.

Three defeats in six will be a bit of a worry for their ambitions – and they are going to have to score plenty to have a chance of beating Rochdale at home. Robbie Stockdale’s side picked up a third home win 10 days ago, taking their goal difference into positive territory, but have five draws at Spotland. They have scored in their past five games – and in their last five at home, where they are unbeaten in that time.

Alex Newby has scored four of his five goals at home. Jake Beesley is in fine form, with four goals in two games. Carlisle boss Keith Millen expected an attacking side (ahead of their postponed game) and that’s what the Valiants will have to deal with on Wednesday evening.

Energised Stevenage might sneak a point

Swindon 1.9620/21 v Stevenage 4.67/2; the draw 3.613/5

Keeper Christy Pym, whom new boss Paul Tisdale knows well from Exeter, has signed for Stevenage on loan to shore up their defence. He would have his work cut out against Swindon, but he can’t play until January 3. The Robins have scored in 10 of their past 11 games but have not performed brilliantly at home, winning twice and drawing four.

Dion Conroy is suspended for this match, while Mathieu Baudry, also in defence, is injured. There are also worries of who will be available after Covid. Ben Garner will hope Jack Payne and Tyreece Simpson are fit, or that Harry McKirdy can at last score at home, after five away.

Stevenage will eye the chance of a point even if their away record has earned them five points. New boss Tisdale watched his side earn a home point with Scunthorpe in his first League Two game and then lose to Carlisle, before being defeated at Salford.

At Moor Lane, Tisdale saw an “energised” side who, in the dressing room afterwards, were disappointed not to earn something, unlike before he said.

Much still deepens on Elliott List scoring it seems, but if the visitors can show some more fight they might be able to take advantage of the home team’s less than excellent record, by taking a draw. Older hands like Luke Norris will also be desperate for the point that would edge Boro out of the bottom two once more.