Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions from a full Boxing Day programme…
“Spurs’ comfortable defeat at Selhurst Park was one of the early signs that the north London side would need to move on from Nuno Espiríto Santo, and his replacement Antonio Conte has started well enough to make a victory in the return game look likely.”
Burnley v Everton
Sunday, 15:00
Burnley can climb out of the bottom three if they win on Boxing Day and rivals Watford lose earlier in the afternoon, and this is exactly what Infogol expects to happen. Opponents Everton rode their luck to pick up a point at Chelsea with a bare bones line-up, and Sean Dyche’s side are expected to have a slight edge if they can improve on the 0.55 xGF average from their last three outings.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.521/2
Man City to blow Leicester away
Manchester City v Leicester City
Sunday, 15:00
Leicester are coming into this game off the back of a draining League Cup exit, and they’ll hope this doesn’t put a dampener on things after beginning to rediscover their attacking form. League leaders City look like a tough task for even the best sides around, though, and the 0.25 xGA average across their last three away games means Brendan Rodgers’ side may need luck as well as form to stand a chance.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 8.007/1
Arsenal to complete double over Norwich
Norwich City v Arsenal
Sunday, 15:00
Arsenal’s victory at home to Norwich in September was their first in the league this season, but the Gunners have played themselves into form and go into this meeting off the back of three straight league wins with a 2.80 xGF average across the trio. The hosts have lost their last three, with their defensive fragility remaining, and Infogol’s model anticipates an away victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Spurs to win London derby
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace
Sunday, 15:00
Spurs’ comfortable defeat at Selhurst Park was one of the early signs that the north London side would need to move on from Nuno Espiríto Santo, and his replacement Antonio Conte has started well enough to make a victory in the return game look likely. Palace have been better at home than away this term, with their xGF average dropping substantially, and Infogol gives the hosts the upper hand here.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
West Ham to pull selves out of difficult run
West Ham United v Southampton
Sunday, 15:00
These two sides played out a drab 0-0 earlier in the season, with West Ham’s Michail Antonio sent off, and the hosts may be without the Jamaica striker from the start following his positive Covid test. That said, the visitors’ recent winless run means Infogol’s model gives a narrow edge to David Moyes’ side, who will be hoping for better fortunes at home after failing to win any of their last three on the road in all competitions.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Chelsea to pip Villa in tight game
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Sunday, 17:30
Chelsea may be able to welcome back some players after illness and injury when they travel to Villa Park, and the Blues will hope this allows them to refine some verve after a couple of underwhelming results in the league. The reverse fixture brought a comfortable win for Thomas Tuchel’s side, but the arrival of Steven Gerrard in Birmingham has brought the kind of improvement which should make this closer.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Brighton to complete double over Brentford
Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford
Sunday, 20:00
Leandro Trossard’s late winner settled the tie when these teams met in September, and Brentford’s recent unpredictable form leaves Infogol’s model favouring the home side. The Seagulls are averaging just 1.19 xGA per game at home, and were unfortunate to win none of their last three at the Amex Stadium, though Thomas Frank’s side will be able to welcome back key man Ivan Toney.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1
Man Utd to continue winning run
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Monday, 20:00
Man Utd’s home win over Newcastle was one of their better performances this season, and their opponents haven’t shown enough improvement under Eddie Howe to suggest they can avoid a repeat. Ralf Rangnick’s side haven’t seen a dramatic improvement in their underlying numbers, but should have more than enough against opponents whose last three games have seen them average 2.97 xGA.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Source: Betfair Premier League
